Daily match picks

It seems strange with so few matches taking place that they have 2 matches on at the same time in both the men’s and women’s section.

As always you are advised to used reduced stakes in exhibitions.

WTA

Broady (1.4) v Grey (2.88)

Due to start at 11:30 am

Head to heads are 1-1. Both matches were this month on hard courts. Broady won the first one in 2 sets and Grey won the next in 3 sets.

Overall results favour Broady in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Grey has better win percentages on hard courts in the last 12 months. Broady has been a little better in 2020.

Grey has had some decent hard court results during the pandemic. As well as beating Broady she beat Alicia Barnett as underdog. This week she lost in 2 close sets to Heather Watson. She has been playing indoors in the last 2 weeks. She won 11 of her 14 indoor matches. Only 1 of those wins was as pre match favourite.

Broady has also been playing indoors in the last 2 weeks. She lost just 2 of her 14 matches. Both losses were to Eden Silva. She has played 8 matches on hard courts during Covid. She played mainly very low ranked opponents. Broady herself is only just inside the top 500. She shows a lot of promise.

We have some value on Grey and this should be a close match. Lay Broady around 1.25 and remove the liability around 1.50. Lay the set 1 winner.

I give Grey a slight edge to take the match.

Update: Broady was broken in the first game of the match. Another break gave the set to Grey. The first half of the second set was more competitive but Grey broke for a 4-2 lead and Broady didn’t win another game.
Grey won 6-3, 6-2.

WTA

Watson (1.21) v Silva (3.75)

Due to start at 11:30 am

This will be their first meeting.

Their overall win percentages are quite even in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Watson’s hard court results are a little better. She also plays against stronger opponents. Silva is ranked 486 so plays low level ITF tournaments.

In February Watson won the hard court title in Acapulco. In January she had reached the semi finals in Hobart, one of her favourite tournaments. She has played just 1 match during the lockdown which was a straight sets win over Sarah Beth Grey earlier this week.

Silva has won 4 of her 5 hard court matches during the pandemic. Her loss was when she retired against Freya Christie 3 weeks ago. Last week she played 7 matches indoors. She won 6 of them including 2 wins over Broady .

Watson is rightly the favourite but having played so few matches recently so could be vulnerable. I think it is worth a small lay around 1.15 and remove the liability around 1.35 to 1.40. Back Watson if she loses set 1.

Update: Watson had break points in the first game of the match which gave us our entry price. Silva held and then broke the Watson serve. She took a 3-0 lead. Watson broke back but was immediately broken again. Silva held on for the set. The second set was controlled by Watson. Watson won the match tie break.
Watson won 3-6, 6-1, 10-6.

ATP

Choinski (2.5) v Broady (1.57)

Due to start at 12:45 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Overall results strongly favour Broady in the last 12 months. He also leads in 2020. Neither player has great results on hard courts.

Choinski was one of the first to play during the pandemic. He took part in the Tennis Point exhibitions in Germany. He has played an amazing 53 matches during Covid. Most of those were on clay courts. He has played 6 hard court matches recently. He won just 2 of them including a straight sets loss to Cameron Norrie this week.

Broady took part in the first Battle of the Brits in June. He didn’t win a set but was up against Murray, Evans and Edmund. Since then he has played 2 indoor exhibitions. He won 8 of his 10 indoor matches. This week he took on Anton Matusevich. Matusevich is inexperienced but played well and pushed Broady very close in the match tie break.

I expect Choinski to be competitive. He has played a lot more tennis than he is used to in the last 3 months. That will have helped his game a great deal but he is likely to have a few aches and pains.

Broady made hard work of his last match but I think he will come through a tight match with the win.

Back Broady around 1.95 to 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Very poor from Broady. He was broken twice in the first set. In set two Choinski broke for a 4-2 lead. He served for the match at 5-3 but Broady broke back. Broady was broken in the next game.
Choinski won 6-3, 6-4.

ATP

Evans (1.4) v Norrie (3.15)

Due to start at 12:45 pm

Evans has won both their previous matches. Both were on hard courts. The most recent match was at the last Battle of the Brits. Evans won in straight sets.

Evans’ overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 are stronger. He has also been more successful on hard courts.

Evans was unbeaten in the last Battle of the Brits. He had a very solid win over Kyle Edmund earlier this week.

Norrie beat Choinski this week in 2 sets. He has a lot of ability but is very inconsistent. If he has one of his inspired days he can cause Evans some problems.

If Evans is as clinical as he was earlier this week he will win. If I see his price at 1.75 to 1.85 I’ll take it. If Norrie takes a set it is going to be in a tie break.

Update: Norrie took a 3-0 lead in the first set. Evans pulled back to 4-4. The set went to a tie break which Norrie won. Evans seemed to have sorted himself out in the second set. He broke the Norrie serve twice and led 5-1. Norrie fought back to take them into another tie break. Evans had a set point in that tie break but it was Norrie who won it.
Norrie won 7-6, 7-6.

WTA

Burrage (1.87) v Raducanu (2.07)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Burrage won their only previous match. That was in April 2019 in the semi final of an indoor ITF tournament. She won in 3 sets.

Ruducanu has a much stronger win percentage in the last year. Burrage has better results in 2020. She has won 20 of her 25 matches (80%). Raducanu has won 5 of her 7 2020 matches (71%).

Burrage beat Konta on Monday. Raducanu beat Boulter on the same day.

Raducanu has only played 2 matches during the lockdown. Burrage has played a lot more tennis during the pandemic. She has played 14 matches and has won 13 of them. Her only loss came to Katie Boulter 2 weeks ago on an indoor court.

This should be a decent match. The sets should be close and it can easily go to 3 sets.

I am giving Burrage the edge to win. Lay Raducanu around 1.65 to 1.70 and remove liability around 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

 

These matches are being played on hard courts. Two normal sets and the third set will be a match tie break to 10 points.

It is another exhibition so you’re advised to use reduced stakes.

ATP

Matusevich (2.5) v Broady (1.52)

Due to start at 11:30 am

This will be their first meeting.

Matusevich is inexperienced as a pro. he has played just 9 matches although he won 6 of them. Eight of those matches were in 2020. Seven of them were last week! He beat Lloyd Glasspool and Jan Choinski as underdog.

Broady has won 9 of his last 10 matches. He has played 14 matches during the pandemic. He won 9 of them. He was strong favourite in his last 11 matches. Those were indoors. He didn’t win a set in the last Battle of the Brits against Evans, Murray and Edmund.

Broady has a lot more experience and should be too strong today. He may not have everything his own way.

Back Broady around 1.85 to 1.95.

Update: Broad made a fast start and ran away with the first set. He was broken at the start of set 2 and gave the set up quite weakly. He also made very hard work of the match tie break.
Broady won 6-1, 2-6, 12-10.

WTA

Boulter (2.8) v Konta (1.46)

Due to start at 1 pm

This is their first meeting.

Boulter has a better win percentage in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Most of her best results were in ITF tournaments or Challengers. Her hard court results are also better. Konta has better hard court results in main tour tournaments in the last year.

Konta has not played a match during the pandemic.(EDIT, yes she did. She lost yesterday in 2 sets to Burrage). Just before lockdown she reached the semi finals in Monterrey on hard courts. She had lost her other 3 matches in 2020 as pre match favourite.

Boulter reached the third round at the Indian Wells Challenger just before the tour was suspended. Two weeks ago she played an exhibition indoors. She won all 4 of her matches although she was favourite in every one.

Konta should be better than she was yesterday which was her first match during the pandemic. If she breaks in the early games lay her and remove liability when Boulter breaks back. Back Konta around 1.90 to 2.00.

Update: Konta had an absolute nightmare from the service line. She was broken in the first game of the match. She immediately broke back but didn’t manage to hold serve once in that set. In fact she did not manage to hold serve until she was 1-3 behind in set 2. That looked like it was a turning point and she took a 5-3 lead. She was broken easily. The set went to a tie break. Konta took it. Konta also took the match tie break.
Konta won 2-6, 7-6, 10-6

ATP

Evans (1.76) v Edmund (2)

Due to start at 5 pm

Edmund leads their previous matches 3-1. Their most recent meeting was in the last Battle of the Brits. Evans won fairly comfortably in straight sets. Edmund’s last win was on grass at Eastbourne in 2019. He won on clay in 2017 and indoors in 2016.

Evans has slightly better better overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Edmund has better hard court results.

Evans won all 5 of his matches at the last Battle of the Brits. He reached the semi finals in Dubai in February on hard courts.

Edmund’s only loss at the last Battle of the Brits was against Evans. He reached the quarter finals in Acapulco and Auckland in 2020 on hard courts.

I think this one will be closer than their last meeting. I still favour Evans to win a close match.

Back Evans around 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Edmund saved break points in the first game and then had a break point in Evans’ first service game. that gave us the highest price of the match on Evans. The only other break points of the set went to Evans and he took the second one for a 4-3 lead. He took the set.
The second set was also close and again Evans broke for a 4-3 lead. Edmund had 2 break points in the next game but couldn’t convert.
Evans won 6-4, 6-4.