Daily match picks

These are played on hard courts. Two normal sets and a match tie break to 10 points if required.

Exhibition = REDUCED STAKES

Martincova (2.82) v Swiatek (1.47)

Due to start at 11 am

This is their first meeting.

Overall results favour Swiatek in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Their hard court results are quite even.

Martincova hasn’t played well on hard courts during the pandemic. She won just 2 games against Bencic yesterday and last month lost to the lower ranked Kuzmova sister. Her only win was over Schmiedlova who has also been in poor form on hard courts.

Swiatek narrowly lost to in form Muchova yesterday. She fought back from losing the opening set but Muchova took the match tie break which had 9 mini breaks.

I am giving the edge to Swiatek but want a much better price before back her. Anything over 1.85 is OK or wait for her to be broken before backing.

Kr Pliskova (2.1) v Strycova (1.62)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Strycova has won all 3 of their previous meetings. They were all on different surfaces. She won on grass in 2019, indoors in 2018 and on clay in 2013.

Overall results in the last 12 months favour Pliskova. They have been quite even in 2020. It’s the same pattern on hard courts.

Pliskova has played mainly clay matches during lockdown. Her only hard court match was a straight sets loss to 26th ranked Karolina Muchova.

Strycova has also played more clay matches during Covid-19. She has played twice on hard courts. She also lost to Muchova and beat 822nd ranked Linda Fruhvirtova in 2 sets.

Tough one to predict. Despite their previous results we have some value on Pliskova. There is a decent chance that this goes to 3 sets.

Back Strycova if she goes a break behind. Lay the set 1 winner.

Vondrousova (2.20) v Bencic (1.78)

Due to start at 4 pm

This is their first meeting.

Overall results favour Bencic in the last 12 months and in 2020. Her hard court record is also better.

Bencic has played reasonably well during the lockdown. Just one poor performance against Schmiedlova on clay earlier this month. She easily beat Martincova yesterday.

Vondrousova has played 2 hardcourt matches during the pandemic. She beat Schmiedlova and the weaker Kuzmova sister in straight sets.

Both players can be unpredictable at the best of times but I am going with Bencic. The sets should be close. Back Bencic around 2.20. If both are playing well a lay of the set winner is a good plan.

 

Just 2 weeks until the main tennis tour start up again!

Yesterday’s matches were pretty decent overall. Svitolina just wasn’t interested in her match with Sevastova and won just 2 games. perfect example of why we reduce stakes for exhibitions. There is hardly anything at stake for the players.

EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES

ATP

Haas (4)v Bautista Agut (1.28)

Due to start at 11 am.

They never met before.

Haas has played well this week. He beat Struff in 2 tie breaks and kept his match with Thiem close yesterday. He was only broken twice.

Bautista Agut lost to Sinner yesterday. He started as moderate favourite. He was broken 3 times.

Most of the players this week have been poor on return. We are likely to see tie breaks in this one. Bautista Agut doesn’t tend to break serve often even when at his best. Lay him around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.40.

I would think this match means more to Haas than to Bautista Agut.

WTA

Svitolina (1.47) v Petkovic (2.78)

Due to start around 12:30 pm

Svitolina has won all 3 of their previous meetings. All their matches have been on hard courts. Their most recent was in 2016 at the Rio Olympics.

Overall results strongly favour Svitolina in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Both have decent records indoors but Svitolina’s is better.

Why was Svitolina so poor yesterday after beating Petra Kvitova the day before? I suppose she could have been ill. Even if she wasn’t interested you would have expected her to win more than 2 games against Sevastova on what is probably her favourite surface. More importantly for us how will she perform today?

Petkovic pushed Kvitova very close yesterday. She was broken in the very first game of the match but broke the Kvitova serve twice to take a 3-1 lead and that was enough to take the set. Kvitova won in the match tie break third set.

This is a very difficult one to predict. Were both Svitolina and Kvitova affected by their match the previous day? If Svitolina wasn’t interested then I doubt that she will be interested today. If she was ill then she is likely to be affected again today.

Petkovic has played pretty well this week and especially so when you consider that this is the first event she has played in 2020.

Lay Svitolina around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability around 1.50. I expect Petkovic to at least be competitive.

ATP

Thiem (1.44) v Sinner (2.96)

Due to start at 3 pm

They have met just once before which was on grass earlier this week. There was just 1 break of serve and Thiem won in straight sets.

Both players have strong indoor records. Sinner has more experience on indoor courts than he does on grass.

I keep saying that Thiem’s return game has been weak this week and that continued in his win over Haas yesterday. We are unlikely to see many breaks and Sinner could take a tie break set.

Lay Thiem around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability around 1.55. Lay the set 1 winner.

WTA

Kvitova (1.53) v Sevastova (2.72)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Their head to heads are 2-2. Their last meeting was on clay in Stuttgart in April 2019. Kvitova won in 3 sets. Her other win was in 2011 on grass and also went to 3 sets. Both Sevastova’s wins were on hard courts. She won in 3 sets in 2010 and straight sets in 2009.

Overall results favour Kvitova in the last 12 months and also in 2020. She has won 18 of her 24 matches this year.

There isn’t too much between them indoors. Sevastova has beaten Bertens and Svitolina this week. In February she beat Serena Williams in a Fed Cup tie.

Kvitova made a slow start against Petkovic yesterday but fought back to win in the match tie break. I give her the edge today but expect to see a higher price on her.

Lay Kvitova if she breaks in the early games. Remove liability when Sevastova breaks back. Back Kvitova if she is a break of serve down or if she loses set 1.