Daily match picks

Camila Giorgi 2.46, Angelique Kerber 1.67

Due to start at Midnight.

Kerber has won all 4 of their previous matches. Their last match was in Sydney in January last year. She won in straight sets on a hard court. All their matches were on hard courts. Giorgi has taken 1 set from her. Their last 3 matches were in Australia.

Better results for Kerber in the last 12 months. She has been comfortable in both her matches this week. She retired from her second round match with Yastremska last week in Adelaide. She has seemed to be over whatever the issue was and was perhaps just being careful with a minor injury.

Giorgi also has not dropped a set this week. She faced just 1 break point in the first round match with Antonia Lottner. Svetlana Kuznetsova was poor in the last round and took just 4 games from Giorgi.

Giorgi has slightly better service stats for the tournament and all other stats favour Kerber. Kerber is likely to make hard work of this match but I expect her to get the win. Back her around 2.10. Don’t be surprised if it goes to 3 sets.

 

Shuai Zhang 2.5, Sofia Kenin 1.65

Due to start at 10 am.

Zhang won their only previous match. That was in Indian Wells in March 2018. She won in straight sets on a hard court.

Stronger results for Kenin in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are also better.

Zhang also made the third round of the Australian Open last year. She reached the quarter finals in 2016 as a qualifier. In the first round she came back from losing the first set to Sloane Stephens. I thought Catherine McNally would take a set from her but Zhang won in straight sets.

This is Kenin’s first time in the third round. She has not lost a set so far although she has had 2 low ranked opponents. Ann Li and Martina Trevisan had both come through the qualifying rounds.

I expect to see a higher price on Kenin. Back her around 1.85 to 1.95.