Daily match picks

Alison Riske 2.12, Julia Goerges 1.86

Due to start around 3:30 am

Goerges leads their previous matches 2-1. They last met in Dubai in February last year. Riske won on a hard court in straight sets. All their matches were on hard courts. Goerges’ last win was also in February 2019 and she won in 3 sets.

Riske has a slightly better win percentage in the last 12 months. She also has a small lead on hard courts and she has a higher ROI. She has played Chinese opposition in both her matches this week. Yafan Wang took her to 3 sets in the first round. Lin Zhu put up very little resistance in the last round.

Goerges has been serving well and has held 92% of her service games. She had a very easy win over Viktoria Kuzmova in the first round. I had expected to have a tough time against Petra Martic and had actually given Martic the edge to win in 3 sets. In fact the match did go to 3 sets but it was Goerges who took the match.

Some value on Riske and I give her the edge.

We have a very good chance of seeing 3 sets. Lay Goerges around 1.50 to 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: It was a very easy first set for Goerges. She broke the Riske serve 3 times. At the start of the second set Riske broke but was eventually broken back. They went into a tie break which Riske took. Two breaks of serve in the deciding set gave Riske the match.
Riske won 1-6, 7-6, 6-2.

 

Belinda Bencic 1.60, Jelena Ostapenko 2.64

Due to start at midnight.

Ostapenko won their only previous meeting. That was in Indian Wells in March 2018. She won in 3 sets on a hard court.

Better overall results for Bencic in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are much stronger in the same period.

Ostapenko has an easy win over Ludmilla Samsonova in the last round. Ostapenko served quite well in that match. She won 80% of her first serve points and only hit 3 double faults. She can normally hit that total in her first service game! She saved all 5 of the break points that she faced.

Bencic beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova in 2 close sets in the last round. She faced 15 break points and was broken 4 times. Bencic has been a little disappointing in her last 2 matches. She won just 4 games against Danielle Collins in Adelaide last week.

I think we have a very good chance that this goes to 3 sets. We have value on Ostapenko and she has a great chance tonight. Lay Bencic around 1.40 to 1.50 and remove the liability at 1.95. Lay the set 1 winner.