Kristyna Pliskova 1.95, Heather Watson

Due to start at Midnight

Head to heads are 1-1. Their last meeting was on an indoor court in Katowice, Poland in 2016. Pliskova won in 3 sets. Watson won on a hard court in Cincinnati in 2014. She won in straight sets.

Overall results favour Watson in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are also a little better.

Watson reached the semi finals in Hobart last week although she usually lifts her game for that tournament. She ended 2019 by reaching the final in Tianjin on hard courts. Last week she had to work pretty hard for most of her service holds and really struggled to consolidate a break of serve with a hold on her own serve.

Pliskova reached the semi finals in Shenzhen 2 weeks ago. She beat defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the second round. Last week she reached the second round in Hobart but lost in 3 sets to Lizette Cabrera. Perhaps she wanted to be rested for Melbourne.

I give the edge to Pliskova. Back her around 2.30. We have a decent chance of seeing 3 sets.

Update: Pliskova just hit my preferred entry price and went on to win the first set. After that it was all Watson so we had the expected 3 sets. Watson won 4-6, 6-3, 6-1

 

Donna Vekic 1.66, Maria Sharapova 2.46

Due to start around 1:30 am

Sharapova won their only previous meeting. That was at the French Open in 2018. She won on clay in straight sets.

Better overall results in the last 12 months for Vekic.

Vekic has made a reasonable start to 2020 and reached the quarter finals last week in Adelaide. In the first 2 rounds she had to recover from losing the opening set against Anastasija Sevastova and Maria Sakkari. When she again lost the first set in her quarter final with Dayana Yastremska her body language suggested that she was not up for another fight. She lost in straight sets.

Sharapova has played 3 matches in 2020 and lost them all. She retired from an exhibition match last week. She played just 17 matches in 2019. Included in that was a 4th round finish at the Australian Open. In the first week of 2019 she retired from her quarter final in Shenzhen against Aryna Sabalenka so maybe we shouldn’t read too much into her retiring from the Kooyong Exhibition. She has an excellent record in Melbourne. She has reached the final 4 times and took the title in 2008.

Sharapova’s fitness really reduced her participation in the tour last year and it is hard to trust her until we see her put a few matches together. Back Vekic around 2.10.