Daily match picks

Dominic Thiem 4.3, Novak Djokovic 1.29

Due to start at 8:30 am

Djokovic leads their previous matches 7-4. Their last match was at the year end ATP Finals in November. Thiem won on an indoor hard court in a third set tie break. He has won their last 2 matches and also 4 of their last 6. His other 3 wins were all on clay. They have met 3 times on hard courts with Djokovic winning them in straight sets.

Overall results favour Djokovic. He a better hard court game though Thiem also has excellent results on hard courts. Stats for the tournament are quite close but favour Djokovic in every category.

Thiem had a few wobbles in the early rounds but he won his fourth round match with Gael Monfils in straight sets. Next up was Rafa Nadal who Thiem had never beaten on a hard court. Thiem came through an entertaining match in 4 sets. His semi final with Alex Zverev was a nervy affair at times but the Austrian’s mental strength won him a place in the final.

Djokovic lost a set to Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round but has not lost another set since. Diego Schwartzman, Milos Raonic and Roger Federer all kept their sets close. Djokovic has been broken 3 times in the last 5 matches.

Roger Federer showed in the semi final how Djokovic doesn’t like to be rushed. I’m not sure Thiem has the game to play the way Federer did. Federer could only keep it up for a set and still lost in 3 sets. Against Zverev, Thiem dropped back way behind the base line to return serve. He was giving himself a little more time to return the Zverev serve. That won’t work against Djokovic. It leaves Thiem vulnerable to a short ball or to the ball being switched wide the other side. Really Thiem needs Djokovic to have a bad day which he doesn’t often have in the big matches. When Djokovic has under performed in the really big matches it has usually been due to illness or injury.

Despite all that I still think Djokovic is priced too low. It is worth a small lay around 1.20 to 1.25 and remove the liability around 1.40 to 1.50. Back Djokovic if he loses the first set.

 

Sofia Kenin 2.62, Garbine Muguruza 1.61

Due to start at 8:30 am

They have met just once before which was in Beijing in September last year. Kenin won on a hard court in 3 sets. Overall results are a little better for Kenin in last 12 months. She also leads on hard courts and has the higher ROI.

Muguruza dropped sets in the first 2 rounds but her last 4 wins were in straight sets including wins over Simona Halep, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Kiki Bertens and Elina Svitolina. She didn’t have a good season in 2019 but has started 2020 pretty well. She has made the better start to the season.

Kenin has lost just 1 set which was against Cori Gauff in the fourth round. She beat Ashleigh Barty in 2 close sets in the semi final. She has had just 1 disappointing match in 2020 which a weak loss to Danielle Collins in Adelaide.

Kenin has better service hold stats for the tournament but Muguruza leads the stats for everything else. She has also served well but Kenin leads 86% to 77% service games held. This should go to 3 sets. Some value on Muguruza.

Kenin has been in the third round at a grand slam tournament 3 times and made it to the fourth round once. Muguruza reached the Wimbledon final in 2015 and won the French Open title in 2016. She won Wimbledon in 2017 and reached the semi finals at the French Open in 2018. It’s fair to say Muguruza has more experience of playing in the big matches.

There is a very good chance of this going to 3 sets. Lay Muguruza around 1.40 and remove the liability at 1.80. Lay the set 1 winner. I think experience will give Muguruza a small advantage.