Daily match picks

Absolutely right. Alistair’s post yesterday echoes some of my own thoughts from the weekend. As I’m sitting here at work with half the servers down I thought I’d post my 2 cents worth….

“No one sells a winning system”

How many times does that phrase crop up on forums? I have to say  I agree. If you find an edge in a market that few others have seen and if that edge can bring you in healthy profits you’d be crazy to let others know about it.

So can we assume that all ebooks are worthless scams? That would seem to be a very sweeping statement but sadly it is one that is all too common. Obviously I am biased. A while ago I popped over to another trading forum to have a cosy chat on this subject over tea and bickies. Having wiped the tear from my eye at the warm welcome I could see that the issue has been clouded by near hysteria.

I have bought a couple of ebooks in the past and read several more that were forwarded to me and as “Golden Goose” systems they were garbage. Anyone buying these hoping that it will give them everything they need to profit from the Exchange markets is kidding themselves. Unfortunately a large proportion do promise exactly that and if someone buys it and feels angry at being misled then ofcourse they should tell others about it.

There seem to be more and more people who are looking at sports trading as a way to get a useful second income but they want that income NOW. They don’t want to put the time in watching market movements, trading with minimum stakes, trying out ideas etc etc. Anyone who has been through the process knows how tough it is. Even then, many who do put the time in just don’t have the aptitude for it so I can understand the desire to cut corners.

My Trading Guide contains strategies that can get new traders off to a decent start but will not give them everything they need to profit consistently. No guide/ebook can give them experience. There are so many different situations that they will be faced with that solutions for them all would be impossible to put in print.

That is where the forums and chatrooms can help. Interaction with more experienced traders and also with other new guys is invaluable and these are free. Also, how many ebooks offer lifetime support? Not many.

Alistair’s advice to check out the value of the ebook you are considering from people who have actually read it is spot on. That way the scammers will hopefully sell fewer over priced ebooks.

By the way I would challenge anyone to view my Trading Guide and come away thinking it was poor value. But don’t take my word for it. Ask around…….

 

A few people asked my why I traded with stakes of 200 to 250. They pointed out that with my experience I ought to be trading bigger. This echoed my own thoughts. I have mentioned either on here or in the chatroom/forum  that my aim for this season was to increase my stakes. Until a couple of weeks ago I had increased to 300 but whenever a game looked difficult I was stepping back down to my comfort zone of 250.

A while ago I felt that I should be able to trade with 500 stakes. Why? Well I saw other people doing it and thought that they were no better than me so I tried it. Shit myself!. The trouble was that I was stepping up from 200 to 500 in one go. Way too fast.

I backed one of the Wiliams sisters when I thought she was in control of the set and almost immediately it went against me. It was probably a poor entry point. The only thing I remember is seeing that big red 500 when I entered the bet.

So I went back to 250. I liked 250. I didn’t have a heart attack when the red 250 appeared on the other player.

I have always felt as though I am missing opportunities. Maybe I need new strategies. Maybe I am missing the strategies that the really big players use. I told myself that if I can make 1500 a month part time using 250 stakes why would I need to risk more? When I go full time after this season even on 250 stakes I can make £600 to £800 a week fairly comfortably.

But recently a couple more people questioned why I was stuck on that stake. So I increased to 300. I was totally comfortable when I clicked to enter a 300 trade so it was obviously within my level of experience to use that stake. So I increased to 350. Then 400. No adverse reaction when I clicked the mouse. I wasn’t suddenly sat in my own mess. Maybe the time was right.

If anyone asked me whether it was a good idea to increase their stake by such an amount in a short space of time then naturally I would be advising against it. I think in my situation I had held my stake too low for too long.

So I now use 500.

What I didnt expect was that it would change the way I trade. We have all seen posts on other forums telling you that its easier to trade with bigger stakes because you don’t need to get as many ticks. When you are using high stakes I feel its important to remember what that stake is. Its not 500. Its 500 POUNDS. Thats a lot of money and has to be respected. If someone told you they were placing a bet for £500 you’d think they were either mad, reckless or had a rich dad.

So when entering a higher  stake I choose my entry points very carefully. I am concentrating more on how many ticks a successful trade might bring me.

If using, for example,Back the Server I may not stay in for the whole game. Often in a tight match you will get 10+ ticks if the server goes 30-0 up. You will only get significant extra ticks if the game is won to 0. If it is won to 15 or 30 then you won’t get a much better price than you got at 30-0. And the risk is less because you’re not exposed to the market as long. You need to be quick to get out of a trade if it looks like it can go against you. It had focused my mind even more than it was before on the discipline and bank protection side of trading.

But have my results and profits improved? Well in the last couple of weeks I have averaged over £200 a day. If that becomes the norm then I’m looking at over 1K a week. 4K a month! Now that wouldn’t put me in Adam Heathecote’s league or anywhere near some of the guys who read the blog and forum. But thats a lot of money to me.

My “acceptable” loss level has naturally increased. I have a mental stoploss set at half my stake so therefore its now £250. I don’t get many losses but occasionally I feel that a trade isn’t under control and I will get out if my hedgeable figure hits -£250. I have had 1 in the last 2 weeks (-£220) but as the profits are also scaled up  I made that back the next couple of games.

I’ll keep you up to date with how its going but its an exciting time for me personally. The danger is in getting carried away and I have to avoid losing discipline. I have never been one for post-it notes on the screen with rules but maybe its time for something similar. I’d be interested to hear how you remind yourself of your trading rules as some of them may be of use to me.