Daily match picks

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WTA Cluj,
Raducanu v Cirstea 1.81
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Raducanu 1-0 (July 2021, grass, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s favour Raducanu.

Raducanu played few indoor matches. She had won 9 of 15. Easy win over Minnen in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Juvan in the 2nd round where she went 0-5 behind before remembering how to play. Easy win over Chwalinska in the q final. She needed 3 sets against Oliynykova in the semi final.

Cirstea lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Rakhimova in the 1st round. Very easy win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. 2 close sets win over Potapova in the q final. Easy win over Snigur in the semi final.
She had played 1 match indoors in the last 12 months.

This is the only indoor tournament either has played in the last 12 months.
Stats for the tournament favour Cirstea on serve.
Chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Cirstea.
Lay Raducanu around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00 to 2.20.

Match prediction: Cirstea in 3 sets.

Update: Cirstea served first and held to 0. In the next game, Raducanu went 0-40 behind. As I was expecting a close match, I laid Cirstea at 1.33.

Raducanu saved the 3 break points. I removed half the liability at 1.50. Raducanu would face and save 2 more break points. She was broken on the 6th break point of the game. In the next game, Cirstea was taken to deuce but held. Raducanu served at 0-3 and faced a break point. She saved it. When she faced another, I hedged for a small loss at 1.20. This time, she was broken.

Raducanu had complained of fatigue after her last match and said she was suffering with a bad cold which was affecting her sleep.

Cirstea had an easy hold to lead 5-0 and broke Raducanu to take the set 6-0.

Raducanu’s stats in that set were terrible. Her first serve % was good at 75% but she won 43% of first serve points and 29% of second serve points. In comparison, Cirstea had a lowish first serve % of 59% but won 80% of first serve points and 71% of second serve points.

I was not keen to lay Cirstea in the second set.

Cirstea served first and held to 0. In the next game, Raducanu was broken again. I need a good reason to turn down the opportunity to lay a player when they are a set and a break behind. Raducanu was barely competing so I stayed out.

In the next game, Cirstea was broken to 0!

Raducanu then had her first hold of serve to get back to 2-2. Cirstea was taken to deuce in the next game but held. I was wondering if I should lay Raducanu if she managed another hold in the next game.

Raducanu was broken to 15.

Cirstea held to 0 to lead 5-2 and she broken Raducanu to 15 to take the set, the match and the title.

Cirstea won 6-0, 6.2.

 

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WTA Cluj
Yuan v Snigur 1.55
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Snigur 1-0 (Nov 2019, hard, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s favour Snigur.

Yuan had won 1 of her 4 indoor matches. 3 sets win over Ruzic in the 1st round as underdog. 3rd set tie break win over Sorribes Tormo in the 2nd round.

Snigur lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. The year she has again come through the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Rajaonah in the 1st round. Surprisingly easy win over Cristian in the 2nd round.
ITF title in Nov. ITF semi in Oct. ITF final in Feb 2025.

12 month indoor stats favour Snigur. 12 month hard stats are stronger for Yuan on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Snigur around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Snigur served first. She went 0-40 behind. Her price went to 1.83. I waited for the break. She saved 2 of the break points but was then broken. The price was still 1.83. I backed Snigur, but as I didn’t get my target price, I reduced the stake.

Yuan was taken to deuce twice in the next game but she held serve. I added to my position by backing Snigur at 2.04.

Snigur served next and held to 30. In the next game, Yuan went 15-40 behind. Snigur’s price hit 1.60 and I removed my liability, leaving the green on Snigur. She completed the break of serve. The next 2 games were holds to 15.

Snigur served at 3-3. She faced and saved 2 break points. Yuan had another break point which she did convert to lead 4-3. I stayed with my free bet on Snigur. The next 3 games were holds with no break points. Yuan took the set.

Snigur served first in the 2nd set. Yuan’s price after the first set was 1.60. Snigur’s stats were poor in the first set so I let her have her service game before I added to my position. Snigur held to 30. I placed a small lay of Yuan at 1.78.

Yuan was broken to 30. I removed my liability by laying Snigur at 1.83 (2.20 on Yuan’s ladder). I now had a larger free bet on Snigur.

Snigur then had another hold to 30. She led 3-0. In the next game, Yuan was again broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.50.

Snigur had a 3rd hold to 30 and broke Yuan again to take the set.

In the third set, the first 3 games were easy holds. Yuan served at 1-2 and was broken to 15. In WTA, the player who breaks first in a 3rd set indoors is broken back 53% of the time. I laid Snigur at 1.15. I had no liability as I was already in profit.

Yuan was broken to 15. I hedged evenly at 1.38. The next 2 games were long ones. Yuan faced and saved 2 break points. Snigur was taken to 4 deuces but held. Yuan then held to 30 to get to 4-4.

Snigur served next. She was broken to 0. Yuan’s price was 1.32. She was about to serve for the match. She had not served well in the 2nd and 3rd sets. I already had some profit so I used some of it to lay Yuan at 1.32.

Yuan went 15-40 behind. Her price hit 1.93 and I hedged.

Snigur served at 5-5. She faced 2 break points and was at deuce 5 times but she held. Yuan serve at 5-6. She went 30-40 behind but saved the match point. She faced another match point and this time, Snigur was able to take it.

Snigur won 4-6, 6-0, 7-5.