Daily match picks

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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Monteiro 2.06 v Machac 1.92

This will be their first meeting. Their clay win %’s are fairly even.

Monteiro reached the quarter finals in Bastad. Challenger semi final in July. Fourth round in Rome and third round in Madrid. Quarter finals in Rio.

Machac reached the third round at the French Open. Final in Geneva. Second rounds in Madrid and Barcelona.

12 month ATP stats favour Monteiro on serve. Return stats favour Machac. Predicted holds are close but favour Monteiro. 3 month stats also favour Monteiro. Recent performances are better for Machac. Good chance of 3 sets.

Lay Monteiro around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Back Machac if he loses set 1.

Update: Machac got the first break of serve to lead 4-2. There were no more break points in the set. I thought there was a good chance of 3 sets so I laid Machac after the set.
In set 2, Monteiro got the first break of serve to lead 3-1. I removed half my liability. In the next game, Monteiro held but only after facing a break point. After the hold, I removed the rest of my liability. 2 games later, Machac broke back. I held my free bet on Monteiro who broke in the very next game. I waited until he held his service game to take the set and then hedged evenly.
In the 3rd set, Machac broke first to lead 3-1. As I favoured Machac to win, I did not lay him. Unfortunately, Monteiro broke back straight away! Monteiro served at 3-4 and faced 4 bp’s but held. In the next game, Machac was broken and Monteiro successfully served for the match.

Monteiro won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

I am often asked if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.