Daily match picks

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ATP Santiago
JM Cerundolo 1.66 v Garin
Due to start at 9:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Clay win %’s favour Garin.

Cerundolo reached the Quarter final in Rio last week. Final in Gstaad 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

Garin won a CH title in Nov. CH title and semi in Oct.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Cerundolo.
Back Cerundolo around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Cerundolo in 2 sets.

Update: Garin served first. He was broken to 0. I was expecting Cerundolo to win but did expect Garin to be able to compete. I laid Cerundolo at 1.38.

The next 4 games were all holds of serve with no break points. Cerundolo served at 3-2 and went 0-40 behind. I removed liability by backing Cerundolo at 1.67 using the same stake I had used for the lay. This left me a free bet on Cerundolo. He saved 2 of the break points but was eventually broken. Cerundolo was now at 1.72.

In the next game, Garin was broken again. I left the free bet to run. Cerundolo held to 30 and broke Garin again to take the set.

Stats for the set weren’t great for either player but were worse for Garin. He won 47% of points on his first serve and 22% on his second serve. Cerundolo had only won 56% of points on his first serve.

Cerundolo served first in set 2. I placed a lay on him at 1.17. He went 15-40 behind. I backed him at 1.28 with the same stake to increase the free bet on him. Cerundolo saved one of the break points but was broken.

In the next game, Garin was broken to 15. The next 4 games were all easy holds of serve. The score was 3-3.

Cerundolo served next and was broken to 15. His price hit 1.52. I placed a small back on Cerundolo at 1.52.

In the next game, Garin faced a break point. I hedged at 1.38. We were potentially close to the end of the set so I preferred to play safe. Garin saved the break point and held. He then broke Cerundolo to 15 to take the set.

Cerundolo’s stats were really poor in that set.

In the first game of the third set, Cerundolo eventually broke Garin in a long game. Looking at Cerundolo’s stats in that second set, I felt it was worth a lay on Cerundolo. I laid at 1.42 using some of the profit from the earlier sets.

The next 2 games were holds. Cerundolo served at 2-1 and went 0-40 behind. I hedged evenly at 1.76.

Only 1 of the remaining 5 games did not contain a break point. There was just 1 break which went to Garin. That gave him a 5-3 lead.

I laid Garin at 1.14. He faced a break point at 30-40. I waited for the break. He saved the break point. He immediately faced another break point and I hedged at 1.36. Garin saved that break point as well. He saved a third break point before recovering to hold serve to win the match.

Garin won 3-6, 6-3, 6-3.

 

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ATP Rio de Janeiro
Tabilo 1.71 v Buse
Due to start at 9:30 pm
The match was cancelled due to rain. Now scheduled to start at 2 pm Sunday.
Confidence rating 7/10

Tabilo 2-0. Most recent Feb 2024, hard, 3 sets. He won on hard in Nov 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %’s are even.

Tabilo lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Nava in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Passaro in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tirante in the q final.
Quarter final in Buenos Aires last week. 3rd Round in Monte Carlo 2025. CH final in Feb.

Buse had a 3 sets win over Marcondes in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Fonseca in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Berrettini as underdog in the q final.
He reached the 2nd round in Buenos Aires last week. CH final in Nov. Semi finals in Gstaad 2025. CH title in Sep.

12 month stats are close. Slight edge for Buse on serve and Tabilo leads on return. Same patter in the stats for their last 10.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Tabilo around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Tabilo in 3 sets.

Update: Tabilo served first. He held to 15. Buse held to 0. In the next game, Tabilo was broken to 30. I backed Tabilo at 2.36.

In the next game, Buse was broken to 15. I removed half my liability at 1.75.

Tabilo then held to 30 to lead 3-2. In the next game, Buse was broken to 15. I remove most of my liability at 1.30.

There were no more break points in the set which Tabilo won 6-3.

Stats for the first set were much stronger for Tabilo

After the first set, Tabilo was at 1.17. I removed the last bit of liability to leave a free bet on Tabilo.

I had expected Buse to be more competitive. I let the free bet run.

The first 6 games of the second set were all holds with no break points. Buse served at 3-3 and was broken to 30. Tabilo followed up with a hold to 15. In the next game, Buse was again broken. He saved 3 break points but Tabilo took the 4th break chance to win the match.

Tabilo won 6-3, 6-3.