These are exhibition matches so I recommend using reduced stakes. Players’ motivation can be hard to predict. These matches can be useful to get us back into the swing of trading in time for the restart in August.
The matches are played as best of 3 sets. The first 2 sets are normal rules and if they need a decider the third set will be a tie break that is the first to 10 points.
Sandgren (1.25) v Eubanks (2.85)
Due to start at 5 pm
This will be the first time they have met.
Their overall 12 month win percentages are quite even though Sandgren has a much better ROI. Their hard court win percentages are also similar but Eubanks has played a lot more matches. Sandgren plays in higher level tournaments and faces tougher opponents.
Sandgren has played well during lockdown and won an exhibition event earlier this week. Eubanks has played a lot of matches in the last couple of months but hasn’t beaten anyone inside the top 250.
We are unlikely to get a decent price on Sandgren unless he loses the first set. Back him if that happens.
Querrey (1.62) v Paul (2.36)
Due to start at 6:30 pm
This is their first meeting.
Querrey lost in straight sets to Tiafoe last night. He was pre match favourite and Tiafoe had a medical time out. Tiafoe has now pulled out of the tournament.
Paul lost yesterday in a third set tie break to in form Sandgren. He has played 4 matches during lockdown. He has been pre match underdog every time but in 3 of them he took the opening set.
We have some value on Paul and I think he can take at least a set. Lay Querrey around 1.40 to 1.45 and remove liability around 1.85. I expect tight sets.
Isner (1.69) v Opelka (2.4)
Due to start at 11 pm.
Opelka leads their previous matches 3-1. 11 of their 13 sets were tie breaks.
Overall results in the last 12 months and in 2020 slightly favour Opelka but they are closely matched.
Opelka lost to Steve Johnson last night in 3 sets. Isner beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets. He had lost their last 2 matches.
Opelka lost to Querrey and Nakashima earlier this week. This will be his 5th match of the week. I am giving Isner the edge. The sets will be very tight. Back Isner around 1.95.
Decent chance of 3 sets.
Johnson (2.30) v Fritz (1.72). Prices from Pinnacle
Due to start at 12:30 am
Johnson leads their previous matches 2-1. He won their last 2 matches including a straight sets win in Indian Wells on a hard court. That was in March last season.
Johnson broke a 5 match losing run in lockdown with a 3 sets win over Opelka last night. Fritz lost in straight sets to John Isner who he had beaten in their previous 2 meetings.
Johnson has much better 12 month results and his hard court results are also stronger. This match should be tight and we have a good chance of 3 sets but the value is on Johnson.
Lay Fritz around 1.50 and remove liability around 2.00.