Arnaboldi (1.92) v Vilella Martinez (2.00)
Due to start around 6 pm
This will be their first meeting.
Overall results slightly favour Arnaboldi in the last 12 months. He has been much stronger on clay.
Arnaboldi has come through the qualifying rounds. Matteo Gigante and Jacopo Berrettini were both beaten in straight sets with a bagel in set 2. Arnaboldi has played two exhibition clay tournaments during Covid. He reached the final of the first one losing to Lorenzo Sonego in the final. The following week he lost in the first round. He had some decent results in clay Challengers in 2019.
Vilella Martinez has played just 2 clay matches during the lockdown. He lost both of them but was underdog each time. He also played 2 indoor exhibitions and won 14 of his 16 indoor matches. Most of his opponents were outside the top 1000. On clay he has lost 9 of his last 10. He lost all 6 of his clay matches this season.
Vilella Martinez is the higher ranked player. He has shown some form on other surfaces this year. We have a slight chance of 3 sets but I favour Arnaboldi to win. Lay Vilella Martinez around 1.50 to 1.60 and remove the liability around 2.20. Back Arnaboldi if he loses the first set.
Update: This was a frustrating match. Arnaboldi had 4 break chances at 3-3 but wasted them. He was broken in the next game. He went an early break behind in set 2 but did break back. He was broken again but Martinez choked when serving for the match. The set went into a tie break which Martinez won.