Trading Tip – WTA Berlin. Haddad Maia v Alexandrova

Haddad Maia (Brazil) v Alexandrova (Russia)
Due to start at 11:30 am

Maia v Alexandrova H2H

Beatriz Haddad Maia did not play this tournament in 2023. She reached the 4th round at Wimbledon. She retired in the first set against Rybakina. That was easily her best result of last season’s grass season and managed just 1 win in Eastbourne when she beat Bouzkova in a third set tie break.
Her 2024 form has been a little erratic. She started well enough on hard courts, reaching the third round of the Australian Open and backed that up with a semi final finish in Abu Dhabi. She reached the quarter finals on the clay of Madrid in April.

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Ekaterina Alexandrova reached the semi finals last season. Last week, she reached the semi finals in Hertogenbosch where she was the defending champion. She lost to Samsonova in 3 sets. Samsonova went on to take the title.
Alexandrova reached the 4th round at Wimbledon. She was beaten by Sabalenka in straight sets. She did not make the best start to 2024 although did make the semi finals in Miami on hard courts.

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This should be a close match. Haddad Maia has not played on grass since Wimbledon 2023. Alexandrova reached the semi finals last week on grass though was not tested until the semi final with Samsonova. She took Samsonova to 3 sets in a match that saw both players struggle on serve. Alexandrova was broken 8 times from 14 break chances.

12 month grass stats are stronger for Haddad Maia on serve. Return stats are quite even but favour Alexandrova. Predicted holds are better for Haddad Maia.
As most of the players play a small number of grass matches in the short grass season, I often look at the stats on hard courts for this season. This is more to try to assess their more recent, relevant form. These stats are close but favour Haddad Maia.

Alexandrova starts the match priced as slight favourite at 1.88 on Betfair.

I will look to lay Alexandrova around 1.55 and remove some or all liability at 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner. I give a slight edge to Haddad Maia to win.

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