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WTA Challenger Florianopolis
Monnet v Grabher 1.54
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating 7/10
Grabher 4-0. Most recent Nov 2022, clay, 2 sets. 2 sets win on clay in June 2022. 3 sets win on clay in 2021. She won indoors in 2020, 2 sets. Clay win %’s are better for Grabher.
Monnet needed 3 sets as strong favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Sierra as huge underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win as underdog in the Quarter final. 3 sets win over Kraus as underdog.
CH semi in Sep. She plays mostly ITF’s.
Grabher needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.15 favourite in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win as huge underdog in the Q final over Waltert.
CH semi last week. CH q final in Sep. CH semi in July. CH q final in June.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Monnet. 12 month CH stats are stronger for Grabher on serve. 2025 CH stats also favour Grabher on serve. 2025 ITF stats are much stronger for Grabher.
Back Grabher around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.
Update: Grabher made a terrible start. She was broken in the first game. I didn’t get my target price but placed a reduced stake back on her. Easy hold for Monnet followed. In the next game, Grabher was broken again and I exited. If she was going to have a total nightmare, I didn’t want to sit and watch the red get bigger. Grabher was also broken in her third service game!
Monnet was broken twice when serving for the set. Grabher was broken for a fourth time to lose the set.
In set 2, Monnet served first. I did not want to enter until I had seen Grabher’ s service game. She had only held once in the first set. Monnet held to 30 and then broke Grabher. She was now a set and a break ahead. This usually a really good time to enter. I laid Monnet.
Monnet was broken to 0. Grabher then held serve to 0! Grabher broke serve again in the next game and held to 15 to lead 4-2. I removed most of my liability.
Grabher served at 4-3 and was broken. I held my position. She immediately broke Monnet to lead 5-4 and successfully served out the set.
Monnet was serving first in the third set so I did not exit the trade. She was broken in the first game and I hedged.
Monnet fell apart in the third set.
Grabher won 3-6, 6-4, 6-0.
