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WTA Hobart
Ruzic 1.51 v Sierra
Due to start at 6:30 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Ruzic 1-0 (Aug 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Ruzic.

Ruzic had a 2 sets win in the 1st round as favourite. She reached the Quarter finals in Monterrey 2025.

Sierra had a 3 sets win over McNally in the 1st round as underdog. She reached the Quarter finals in Sao Paulo 2025.

12 month stats are stronger for Ruzic.
Back Ruzic around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Ruzic in 2 sets.

Update: Ruzic started at 1.53. She served first and was broken to 30. Her price only went to 1.81. Not quite at the target price. When this happens, I usually place a reduced stake back on the favourite who was just broken. I backed Ruzic at 1.81. In the next game, Sierra went 15-40 behind. Ruzic’s price dropped to 1.64 and I removed half the liability. Sierra saved the 2 break points but then faced another which Ruzic converted. Ruzic dropped to 1.56. I removed most of the liability.

The next 2 games were holds of serve. Ruzic served at 2-2 and was broken. As I already had a position on Ruzic, I added to that position with a back at 2.14. Liability was still fairly small.

The next 4 games were very easy holds. Sierra served at 5-4. She faced a break point at 30-40 and I removed my liability by laying Ruzic at 1.87, leaving the green on her.

Ruzic took the break point. In the next game, she held to 30. Sierra was broken to 0 in the next game to give Ruzic the set.

Pre match, I had expected Ruzic to win in straight sets but her stats in that set weren’t amazing. Her first serve % was low at 53% and whilst her 2nd serve points won % at 50% was around the tour average, it would need to be higher if she continued to struggle to find first serves.

I laid Ruzic using some of the profit from the first set. I laid at 1.22.

Ruzic was broken to 30 in the first game of the second set. I backed her at 1.41 with the same stake that I had used for the lay to give me a bigger free bet on Ruzic.

The next 4 games were holds of serve. Sierra served at 3-2 and was broken. They were now at 3-3. Ruzic was broken again in the next game. I backed Ruzic at 1.58. The price wouldn’t go massively higher than that in the set unless Sierra went a double break up. The next game was a long one but Ruzic broke back. I hedged at 1.29. The score was 4-4.

Ruzic had an easy hold in the next game and Sierra was broken to 15 to give the set and the match to Ruzic.

Ruzic won 7-5, 6-4.