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Santiago Challenger
Boscardin Dias v Bueno 1.62
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2025, clay, Bueno in 2. Boscardin Dias won by retirement in Feb 2025. 12 month clay win 5’s favour Boscardin Dias. Bueno leads in 2026.

Boscardin Dias had an easy win in the 1st round. Tight 3 sets win in the 2nd round as slight underdog.
CH q final last week. CH q finals in Feb and Jan. CH final in Oct.

Bueno had a 2 sets win over Varillas in the 1st round as underdog. Easy win in the 2nd round as favourite.
CH semi in Feb. CH semi in Nov.

12 month stats favour Boscardin Dias on serve. Stats for their last 10 favour Dias on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Bueno around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Boscardin Dias in 3 sets.

Update: Boscardin Dias served first and held to 0. Bueno also held to 0. In the next game, Boscardin Dias was broken to 30. Liquidity was very low at 12K matched but there were traders involved in the match and no gaps between prices. I laid Bueno at 1.41.

In the next game, Bueno was broken to 15 and I removed most of my liability at 1.68, leaving the green on Boscardin Dias.

Boscardin Dias held to 30 in the next game. Bueno was then broken to 30 and I hedged at 1.65 on Boscardin Dias’ ladder (2.52 on Bueno’s ladder).
Bueno immediately broke back. he was broken again and broke back again! The set went to a tie break which Boscardin Dias won.

Stats for the set favoured Boscardin Dias.

Bueno served first in set 2. He was broken to 30. In the pre match assessment, I had expected 3 sets. I laid Boscardin Dias at 1.32.

In the next game, Boscardin Dias faced a break point but recovered to hold. Bueno then held to 0. In the next game, Boscardin Dias went 15-40 behind and I backed him at 1.54 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This gave me green on both players but a larger green on Boscardin Dias. He saved one of the break points but was broken.

In the next game, Bueno was broken. Boscardin Dias then held to 0 and then broke Bueno again to lead 5-2. He successfully served out the set.

Boscardin Dias won 7-6, 6-2.