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April29th

WTA Madrid
Baptiste v Andreeva 1.48
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10

Andreeva 1-0 (July 2025, grass, 2 sets). Clay win %’s favour Andreeva.

Baptiste reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Paolini in the 3rd round as underdog. 3 sets win over Bencic as underdog in the 4th round. 3rd set tie break win over Sabalenka in the q final.
4th Round at the French Open 2025, 3rd Round in Rome 2025.

Andreeva reached the Quarter final last year. 2 sets win over Udvardy in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Galfi in the 3rd round. 3rd set tie break win over Bondar in the 4th round.2 tight sets win over Fernandez in the q final.
Semi finals in Stuttgart 2026, Title in Linz 2026, Quarter finals at the French Open 2025, Quarter finals in Rome 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Baptiste on serve. 2026 stats also favour her on serve. Stats for the tournament favour Andreeva.
Good chance of 3 sets. Some real value on Baptiste.
Lay Andreeva around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.60.
Lay the set 1 winner.

Match prediction: Baptiste in 3 sets.

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Update: Andreeva started the match priced at 1.55. Baptiste served first. The first 2 games were easy holds.
1-0
1-1

Baptiste faced a break point at 30-40 but recovered to hold.
2-1

The next 3 games were easy holds.
2-2
3-2
3-3

Baptiste faced a break point after 3 deuces and was broken.
3-4

I laid Andreeva at 1.23. Andreeva held to 15.
3-5

The next 2 games were easy holds and Andreeva won the set.
4-6

Andreeva’s price was 1.14 after the set. Stats for the set were stronger for Andreeva. She had lost just 2 points on serve!
Baptiste’s stats weren’t terrible although her first serve percentage would need to improve in the second set for her to have a chance. It would be reasonable to expect that Andreeva would not be able to maintain that level in the second set.

Baptiste served first in the second set. I did not add to my lay of Andreeva. Baptiste held to 30.
1-0

The next 3 games were holds to 15.
1-1
2-1
2-2

Baptiste was broken to 15. I added to my lay at 1.06. My liability was not huge which was a good thing as there had been no sign of Andreeva dropping her level, never mind dropping her serve.
2-3

The next 3 games were easy holds.
2-4
3-4
3-5

Baptiste faced a break point at 30-40 but recovered to hold.
4-5

Andreeva was serving for the match. It was now or never for Baptiste (and my trade). Andreeva was broken to 30! Andreeva’s price was 1.20. I was tempted to hedge or at least to remove liability but the risk/liability was not great and I had favoured Baptiste pre match. I stayed with my lay.
5-5

Baptiste held to 15. Andreeva’s price reached 1.29. I removed almost all my liability.
6-5.

Andreeva held to 15.
6-6

Tie break! Baptiste served first and won her point. Andreeva then lost both of her serves! I hedged at 1.53
Tie break 3-0

Baptiste won her first service point.
Tie break 4-0

Baptiste lost her next service point. Andreeva won both her serves.
Tie break 4-3

Baptiste lost her next service point. She won the second one.
Tie break 4-4
Tie break 5-4

Andreeva lost her first service point. Her price moved to 1.58.
Tie break 6-4 Set point

Andreeva won her next service point. Baptiste then lost her next service point. Andreeva’s price went to 1.23.
Tie break 6-5
Tie break 6-6

Baptiste won her next service point. Andreeva was priced at 1.37.
Tie break 7-6 Set point

Andreeva won both her service points.
Tie break 7-8 Match point

Baptiste saved the match point. She lost the next point to give Andreeva another match point.
Tie break 8-8
Tie break 8-9

Andreeva took the next point to book a place in the final.
Tie break 8-10

Andreeva won 6-4, 7-6.