Alison Riske 2.12, Julia Goerges 1.86
Due to start around 3:30 am
Goerges leads their previous matches 2-1. They last met in Dubai in February last year. Riske won on a hard court in straight sets. All their matches were on hard courts. Goerges’ last win was also in February 2019 and she won in 3 sets.
Riske has a slightly better win percentage in the last 12 months. She also has a small lead on hard courts and she has a higher ROI. She has played Chinese opposition in both her matches this week. Yafan Wang took her to 3 sets in the first round. Lin Zhu put up very little resistance in the last round.
Goerges has been serving well and has held 92% of her service games. She had a very easy win over Viktoria Kuzmova in the first round. I had expected to have a tough time against Petra Martic and had actually given Martic the edge to win in 3 sets. In fact the match did go to 3 sets but it was Goerges who took the match.
Some value on Riske and I give her the edge.
We have a very good chance of seeing 3 sets. Lay Goerges around 1.50 to 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.
Update: It was a very easy first set for Goerges. She broke the Riske serve 3 times. At the start of the second set Riske broke but was eventually broken back. They went into a tie break which Riske took. Two breaks of serve in the deciding set gave Riske the match.
Riske won 1-6, 7-6, 6-2.