Simona Halep 1.63, Garbine Muguruza 2.56
Due to start around 4:30 am
Muguruza leads their previous matches 4-2. Their last match was in the French Open semi final in May 2018. Halep won in straight sets. Muguruza’s last win was in Cincinnati in August 2017. She won on a hard court in 2 sets. She has won both their hard court matches. One of Muguruza’s wins was due to withdrawal.
Overall results favour Halep. They are very evenly matches on hard courts in the last 12 months.
Stats for the tournament are pretty even but all slightly favour Halep.
Halep has not lost a set so far. She had a short wobble in the first 3 rounds. He first set with Jennifer Brady was very close and Halep was put under a lot of pressure. After she took the set in a tie break she ran away with the second set. In the next 2 rounds she had a decent lead towards the end of the match but made hard work of closing the second sets out.
Elise Mertens was always playing catch up in the fourth round but in each set when she had finally fought back to level the set score Halep broke her again and served out the set. In the quarter final Anett Kontaveit was totally outplayed and won just 2 games.
Muguruza has done well so far in 2020 but some of her matches have been closer than we might have expected. This tournament started the same way. In the first round Shelby Rogers took their opening set 6-0. The 155th ranked American won just 1 game in the next 2 sets. I had expected Ajla Tomljanovic to take their second round match to a deciding set which is exactly what happened.
Muguruza’s last 3 rounds have seen much better performances from her. Elina Svitolina has had some problems in 2020 and is yet to find her best form. She took just 3 games. Kiki Bertens might have been expected to give Muguruza a real run for her money but was also beaten in straight sets. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has mad a very strong start to the year and was a break up in both their sets. In fact she was twice a break up in the first set but was also beaten in 2 sets.
Muguruza seems to be peaking at the right time and she can take at least a set tonight. We have a decent chance of this going to 3 sets. I give Halep a small edge. Lay Halep if she breaks first. Remove your liability when Muguruza breaks back. Back Halep around 1.95 or if she loses set 1.