There have been a few odd results this week. In the ATP they are perhaps saving their energy for Monte Carlo that starts next week. In Charleston the top players aren’t having everything their own way. I’m not sure what they would be saving themselves for as there is only another tournament in Charleston next week. This week’s tournament is a WTA 500 and next week its only a WTA 250.
Zidansek (1.79) v Errani (2.22)
Due to start at 4 pm
This will be their first meeting.
Overall win percentages are better for Errani. She also has a much higher ROI. Long term clay results favour Zidansek. The 12 month clay results are much better for Errani.
Errani has won both her matches in straight sets as underdog this week. In the first round she beat in form Sara Sorribes Tormo, who must surely have been ready for a rest. Both players had better days on return than on serve. Errani was broken 6 times and Sorribes Tormo was broken 8 times. In the last round against Aliona Bolsova, Errani was only broken 5 times in their 2 sets so she’s improving! As usual it was her return game that won the match for her.
Zidansek has also not lost a set. I had expected Anna Kalinskaya to give her more problems than she did but she only won games in the second set. Zidansek was only broken a couple of times. She was also only broken twice in the last round against Giulia Gatto-Monticone. Her first serve was excellent but she only won 5 of 17 points on her second serve (29%).
Stats this week all favour Zidansek. I’m surprised that she has better return stats although Errani has faced stronger opponents. Errani has only held 50% of her service games but what she lacks from the service line she usually makes up for on return of serve. I think we have a fair chance of this going to 3 sets.
We have some value on Errani. Lay Zidansek around 1.45 to 1.50 and remove or reduce liability at 2.00. Lay the winner of the first set.
Update: Errani was broken in her first service game after saving 4 break points. Zidansek held her own serve for a 3-0 lead. Errani got the break back but was immediately broken again. Errani got the break back in the next game but was immediately broken AGAIN. Zidansek served out the set.
In the second set Errani raced into a 4-0 lead which took her price close to the end of set price. Zidansek took the next 6 games to win the match.
Zidansek won 6-3, 6-4.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.