Danka Kovinic (1.64) v Lauren Davis (2.52)
Due to start at 6 pm
Davis won their only previous meeting. That was last month on a hard court in Guadalajara. She won in straight sets.
Overall win percentages are much better for Kovinic. Her clay results are also much better. She reached the final on these courts last week in the WTA500 event. She was the underdog in her last 5 rounds in that tournament. She was comfortable in her first round match this week against Viktoriya Tomova.
Davis reached the third round last week. She has been in poor form since 2019 but there have been signs of her getting her confidence back in 2021. She reached the quarter finals in Guadalajara in March as a qualifier. Last week she beat Sofia Kenin and Madison Brengle before losing to Cori Gauff.
I have to favour Kovinic to win. Back her around 2.10 to 2.20. Davis will fight hard and may take a set.
Update: Kovinic easily took the first set. Davis easily took the second. In the third set Davis took the first break of serve but Kovinic broke straight back and went on the take the match 6-1, 1-6, 6-3.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.