Barbora Krejcikova (1.84) v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (2.16)
Due to start at 2 pm
This will be their first meeting.
Long term overall win percentages are better for Krejcikova. Their 12 month and 2021 win percentages also favour her. Long term clay win percentages and 12 month win percentages also favour Krejcikova but on clay in 2021 they are even. Pavlyuchenkova has the higher ROI on clay.
Pavlyuchenkova has only dropped sets in the tournament when she started matches as underdog. She had some revenge over Aryna Sabalenka in the third round for beating her in the Madrid semi final. This time she was not struggling with injury and took the third set 6-0. Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina both took the opening set from her. Azarenka rolled over quite meekly but Rybakina pushed her all the way. Pavlyuchenkova won their deciding set 9-7. In the semi final Tamara Zidansek fought hard but Pavlyuchenkova recovered from being broken first in both sets.
Krejcikova won the tournament in the week before the French Open. In her first round match she looked a little flat against Kristyna Pliskova and lost the opening set. She recovered well but at that stage wasn’t looking likely to get to the second week, never mind the final. After that match she didn’t lose another set until the semi final when she faced match points against Maria Sakkari. Cori Gauff, Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina were all taken down in 2 sets.
Stats for the tournament are fairly even. Krejcikova has a slight lead in service holds. Return points are pretty even. It is very tough to pick a winner. I am going with Krejcikova based on how she held things together against Sakkari. In particular, with Sakkari facing match point, the Greek player hit a ball long. The ball was called out but the umpire came to check the mark. He ruled that the ball was in. They don’t use Hawkeye at this tournament but have it for the TV coverage and Hawkeye showed that the ball had been well out. Sakkari went on to hold her serve. Obviously, Krejcikova didn’t know that Hawkeye called the ball out but she was in a perfect position to also know the ball has been long. She could have crumbled but she didn’t.
The sets will be close. Lay Pavlyuchenkova around 1.60 and remove some or all liability at 2.30. Back Krejcikova if she loses the first set.
Update: Pavlyuchenkova broke serve in the first game. She was immediately broken back and would not win another game in the set.
Set 2 saw a complete turnaround. Pavlyuchenkova raced into a double break 5-1 lead. She was broken while serving for the set but broke again to level the match.
The deciding set was closer. Krejcikova broke to lead 2-1 but Pavlyuchenkova broke straight back. Pavlyuchenkova would be broken against at 3-3 and Krejcikova held on to take the set, the match and the French Open title.
Krejcikova won 6-1, 2-6, 6-4.