WTA Palermo Qualifying, 3rd August 2020

The main draw matches start this afternoon. Those matches are covered in the Trading Tips email

We have a few qualifying round matches to be decided today.

Arruabarrena (2.02) v Sasnovich (1.83)

Due to start at 3 pm

Head to heads are 1-1. their most recent meeting was in July 2016 on clay. Arruabarrena won in 3 sets. Sasnovich won indoors in 2013 in 2 sets.

Their overall 12 month results are slightly better for Arruabarrena but they are pretty even in 2020. There also isn’t too much between them on clay.

Arruabarrena had a very good win over Greetja Minnen in the first round of qualifying. She won in 3 sets. In the second round she was more comfortable against Di Giuseppe losing just 5 games. She has played just 4 matches during Covid. All of them were on clay. Her 2 losses were both to Sara Sorribes Tormo. One of them went to 3 sets.

Sasnovich won her first match in qualifying in straight sets and came through against Martincova yesterday when her opponent retired after the first set. Those were her first matches since February.

Sasnovich served well against Martincova facing just 2 break points in their only set. Arruabarrena has also served well. She was broken twice by Minnen i 3 sets and broken once in the last round.

This one should be tight. There is a very good chance that it goes to 3 sets. I give a slight edge to Arruabarrena.

Lay Sasnovich around 1.50 to 1.60 and remove the liability around 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.

Dodin (2.22) v Podoroska (1.75)

Due to start around 4:30 pm

Podoroska won their only previous meeting in August 2016. That was at the US Open on a hard court. She won in straight sets.

Their overall results in the last 12 months are quite even. Podoroska has slightly better results in 2020. She has won 23 of 26 matches (88%) compared to Dodin’s 14 wins from 18 matches. (78%)

They are pretty even on clay courts.

Neither player has played exhibition matches during Covid.

Podoroska was comfortable against Jani in the first round of qualifying. She seemed to be in control against Bonaventure yesterday but lost a tight second set. She faced 25 break points in that match and was broken 9 times.

Dodin also had a comfortable first round of qualifying. She lost just 4 games to 856th ranked Federica Bilardo. She seemed to be too strong for Wickmayer in the second round and took their opening set 6-2 but Wickmayer fought back to take the second set 6-1. Dodin easily took the deciding set. Dodin was only broken twice in the 3 sets.

There is some value on Dodin today. We have a chance that it goes to 3 sets. Lay Podoroska round 1.50 and remove some or all of the liability around 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.

   
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