Quarter Final
Kasatkina (1.64) v Kudermetova (2.52)
Due to start at 15:30
This will be their first meeting.
Long term, overall win percentages are a little stronger for Kasatkina. Her lead is bigger for matches in the last 12 months. Both players have good indoor results. Kasatkina’s long term indoor results are a lot stronger, Her lead isn’t as big for matches in the last year.
Kudermetova needed a third set tie break in the last round as a very strong pre match favourite. Kamilla Rakhimova was badly undervalued in that match and looked like she was going to edge it towards the end of the match. Kudermetova had a couple of quarter finals indoors towards the end of last season. She reached the second round of this tournament in 2020.
Kasatkina also needed a third set tie break in the last round against Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Sasnovich took the opening set. Both players had problems on serve. Kasatkina was broken 8 times and Sasnovich 9 times. they were both broken 3 times in the deciding set. Kasatkina has struggled on serve this week but her return game has been strong. Last season she reached the semis in Lyon in March. That was her only f=good indoor tournament in 2020 and she lost in the first round in St Petersburg.
I think this will be a long match. We have a very good chance of seeing 3 sets and we can expect a few breaks of serve. I give Kasatkina the edge. She has been in great form this year.
Back Kasatkina around 2.20. Lay the winner of the first set.
Update: Kasatkina made a slow start and lost the opening set easily. She was broken twice in the set. Her stats for the set weren’t terrible but Kudermetova’s first serve was excellent. She hit 86% of first serves in and lost just 3 points on that first serve. In the second set Kasatkina’s serve was very strong. She only lost 5 points on serve. Kudermetova’s serve really started to let her down in that set.
In the deciding set it was a repeat of the second. Kasatkina’s serve wasn’t quite as sharp as it was in the second set but Kudermetova’s didn’t improve at all.
Kasatkina won 1-6, 6-1, 6-2.
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