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ATP Paris Masters
Shapovalov v Fonseca 1.69
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10
Fonseca 1-0 (Oct 2025, indoors, Shapovalov retired). Indoor win %’s are better for Shapovalov.
Shapovalov reached the Quarter finals in Basel. Semi finals in Stockholm 2025, Title in Dallas 2025, Title in Belgrade 2024, Quarter finals in Basel 2024.
Fonseca won the title in Basel last week. He won the Next Gen Finals in Dec.
Shapovalov retired last week.
Back Fonseca around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
Match prediction: Fonseca in 3 sets.
Update: There were no break point in the first 11 games. Fonseca served at 5-6 and faced 1 break point which was taken. There no value entries in the first set.
In set 2, I laid Shapovalov. In the first game of the set, he was broken to 15. Fonseca then had an easy hold to lead 2-0. I removed some liability. There were no more break points in the next 4 games. Shapovalov served at 2-4 and was broken again. The Fonseca price would not move a lot further in the set as he was a double break up so I hedged evenly.
Fonseca was broken when serving for the set at 5-2 but on his second attempt at 5-4, he held to 0. I did not enter a trade in the third set.
Fonseca won 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
