Novak (2.28) v Davidovich Fokina (1.76)
Due to start around 2:30 pm
Davidovich Fokina won their only previous meeting. That was at the US Open in August and he won in 5 sets on a hard court.
Both players have strong overall results in the last year. Novak has much better indoor results.
Davidovich Fokina has won both his matches as underdog. Those 2 wins are his first on indoor courts. He beat Marin Cilic in 3 sets in the last round. He was a set and break behind before he started his recovery. Cilic helped by falling apart in their deciding set.
Novak has not lost a set this week. He was the pre match underdog in the first round against Jordan Thompson. He served really well against Benoit Paire in the last round.
Stats for the tournament favour Novak. We have some value on him as underdog. Lay Davidovich Fokina around 1.40 to 1.50 and remove some or all of your liability at 2.00. Back Novak if he loses the first set.