Novak Djokovic 1.47, Rafael Nadal 3.05

Due to start at 9 am.

Djokovic leads their previous matches 28-26. The last time they played was in the final in Rome in May last season. Nadal won that match on clay in 3 sets. Djokovic has won their last 6 matches on hard courts.

Djokovic has won all 5 of his matches in this tournament. He dropped sets in the last 2 matches against Daniil Medvedev and Denis Shapovalov. Kevin Anderson made him work hard in his first match but Djokovic came through in 2 tie break sets.

Nadal has only won 1 of his matches comfortably. Pablo Cuevas rolled over pretty meekly in Nadal’s 2nd match. Nikoloz Basilashvili was beaten in straight sets but kept both sets close and broke the Nadal serve 3 times. Yoshihito Nishioka wasn’t expected to give Nadal many problems but the Spaniard’s 7-6, 6-4 win was far from impressive.

Nadal seemed to be struggling with the heat a little in his 3rd match. Goffin played one of the best matches that we have seen from him in a while and beat Nadal in straight sets. Yesterday Alex De Minaur went into their match having not taken a set in their 2 previous encounters. The Aussie took the opening set and only a late break gave set to Nadal. The deciding set was very one sided in Nadal’s favour.

I have to give Djokovic the edge but he is priced too low. I hope we get 3 sets. Lay Djokovic around 1.30 and remove the liability around 1.60. Back Djokovic if he gets broken first. Lay the set 1 winner.