ATP German Pro Series Exhibition, 24th July 2020

Just 10 days until we get proper tennis!

This one’s an exhibition so use REDUCED STAKES.

Marterer (2) v Stebe (1.78)

Due to start at 11:30 am

Stebe leads their previous meetings 2-1. They last met earlier this week. Stebe won comfortably in 2 sets. He has won both their clay matches. Marterer won on a hard court at the Australian Open in 2018.

Their win percentages on all surfaces in the last 12 months are very even. Stebe has played a lot more matches.

Longer term clay results favour Stebe but they are evenly matches in 2020 with each player winning over 70% of their matches.

Marterer has played 15 matches during the pandemic. He won 11 of those but his only decent win was over Yannik Hanfmann earlier this week.

Stebe has played 14 clay matches during the lockdown. He has won 10 of them. He has also played a lot of low ranked opponents but does have 2 wins over Daniel Masur, a win over Yannick Maden and this week’s win over Marterer.

This should be competitive but I have to favour Stebe. Back him around 2.20 but if he gets a very early break, lay him and remove liability if Marterer breaks back.

Update: Stebe broke Marterer’s serve in the first game of the match. Marterer eventually broke back for 4-4 and then broke again to take the set. In set 2 Stebe broke in the first game and raced to a 5-1 lead. He served for the set at 5-2 but was injured and was forced to retire.
Marterer won 6-4, 2-5(ret). Note that when Stebe was a double break up in the second set that was the time to either remove liability or to hedge as his price would not have dropped much further in the set.

Hanfmann (1.62) v Otte (2.26)

Due to start at 1 pm

Hanfmann leads their previous matches 2-1. Both their clay matches were during Covid. Otte won their match this week in 3 sets. Hanfmann had beaten him quite easily 2 weeks ago.

Overall results are a lot stronger for Hanfmann in the last 12 months and also in 2020. He has won 40 of his 52 matches (77%) this season. Otte has won 11 of 18 (61%).

Their win percentages on clay are quite similar but Hanfmann has played significantly more matches this season. He has played 37 clay matches compared to Otte’s 13 matches. Hanfmann has won 31 of those matches (84%) in 2020.

Otte has won all 3 of his matches this week as underdog. We have some value on him today and I think we will see 3 sets.

Lay Hanfmann if he gets the first break of serve and remove liability when Otte breaks back. Otte has lifted his level this week but I expect Hanfmann to want some revenge. Back Hanfmann around 2.20 to 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Otte was broken in the first game of the match but he immediately broke back. He took a 5-2 lead and served for the set at 5-3 but was broken. Hanfmann took the set 7-5. In the second set Hanfmann broke for a 2- lead and Otte retired.
Hanfmann won 7-5, 2-1(ret)

   
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