Norrie (1.64) v Thompson (2.52)
Due to start around 1:30 pm
Norrie lead their previous matches 3-1. They last met in July 2019 in Atlanta, USA. Norrie won in 3 sets on a hard court. All their matches were on hard courts.
Overall results are a little better for Norrie. Long term indoor results are better for Thompson but Norrie has been better in the last year.
Norrie reached the quarter finals in St Petersburg this month. He kept his match with Raonic really close last week losing 7-5, 7-6. He was only broken once. He reached the third round at the US Open beating Schwartzman in the first round.
Thompson reached the quarter finals in New York indoors in February. He had some excellent indoor results in Challenger tournaments in 2018 but had had very little indoor success on the main tour. He reached the fourth round at the US Open in August but has won just 1 of his 5 matches since then. He was pre match favourite in 2 of those losses.
I favour Norrie to take this one. Back him around 1.95 to 2.1.
Update: Norrie was broken first and his price hit 2.40. He immediately broke back. He went on to break again and took the set. In the second set he was broken first and again broke straight back. The set went to a tie break. Norrie led 5-4 and was serving. He lost the tie break. He fell apart in the third set.
Thompson won 5-7, 7-6, 6-2.
I sometimes get questions about whether these picks are intended to be left to run. The name of the site strongly suggests that this is NOT the case. I aim to give a value entry to the match. After that you manage your position. The easiest way to do that is as follows.
If we get our target entry price we can remove or reduce our liability/risk after a significant price move in our favour. That is usually if they get a break of serve or sometimes if they get a break point. If our player gets broken then we can exit.