Tsitsipas (1.51) v Dimitrov (2.86)
Due to start around 6 pm
Tsitsipas won their only previous match which was on clay at the French Open last month. He won in straight sets.
Overall results favour Tsitsipas in the last 12 months. His longer term results are also stronger. Results on indoor hard courts are much better for him too.
Tsitsipas had a tough 3 sets win over Jan-Lennard Struff in the last round. He faced 3 break points in the match but wasn’t broken. Struff took their opening set in a tie break. Tsitsipas took sets 2 and 3 with a single break in each set. This is his first indoor tournament since winning the title in Marseille in February. He has been in great form since the tour resumed. He reached the semi finals in the Cincinnati tournament and the third round at the US Open although he choked away a huge lead in that third round match with Coric. He also had some success on clay reaching the final in Rome and the semi finals of the French Open.
Dimitrov reached the semi finals last week in Antwerp although he was helped in the second round by Raonic withdrawing before their match. He beat Khachanov in the first round this week. He has been in strong form on clay and reached the quarter finals in Rome and the fourth round of the French Open. He has had limited success indoors in the last couple of years with his last strong results being a semi final finish in Paris in October last year.
Dimitrov can keep the sets close. We can try a lay of Tsitsipas around 1.30 and remove or reduce the liability around 1.60. Back Tsitsipas if he gets broken first or loses the first set.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.