Round Robin stage
Medvedev (1.82) v Zverev (2.2)
Due to start at 8 pm
Zverev leads their previous matches 5-2. They last met indoors in the Paris Masters final 2 weeks ago. Medvedev won in 3 sets. Zverev won at this tournament last year. He won in the round robin stage in 2 close sets. Medvedev has won 2 of their last 3 meetings.
Overall results in the last 12 months are very even. Zverev has the slightest of edges. Indoor results favour Zverev.
Medvedev made his first appearance at the year end finals last season but lost all 3 of his round robin matches. He lost in straight sets to Tsitsipas and Zverev and took a set from Nadal. Medvedev reached the quarter finals in Vienna before beating Zverev in the Paris Masters final.
Zverev won both Cologne titles indoors last month as well as reaching that final in Paris. He won this tournament in 2018 and reached the semi finals in 2019.
We have some value on Zverev as this should be another close match. There is a very good chance that it goes to 3 sets. Lay Medvedev around 1.50 and remove some or all of your liability at 2.00. Lay the winner of the first set.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.