Dominic Thiem 1.78, Alexander Zverev 2.28
Due to start at 8 pm
Thiem leads their previous matches 5-2. They last met in the French Open quarter final in May last year. Thiem won on clay in straight sets. Thiem won their only indoor match in February 2017. He won in 3 sets.
Thiem has stronger overall results this season. Indoor results also favour him and stats for the tournament favour him.
Thiem’s only loss in the round robin matches was to Matteo Berrettini when he had already qualified for the semi finals. He beat Roger Federer in 2 tight sets in his first match and Djokovic was beaten in a third set tie break.
Zverev had an easy win over Rafael Nadal in his first match but then lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets. Last night he needed to beat Daniil Medvedev to reach the semi finals and to knock out Nadal. He won in straight sets without facing a single break point. He won this title last year.
We have some value on Zverev and I expect this to go to 3 sets. I favour Thiem to win. Back Thiem around 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.
Update: A very tight first set went to Thiem with a late break of serve. He had easily hit our entry price. Unfortunately it was yet another straight sets match.
Thiem won 7-5, 6-3.