We have the qualifying matches for WTA Palermo starting today but I would say this exhibition is more predictable than qualifying matches where players have not played for several months. I’ll have a look at the second round of qualifying tomorrow.
I still advise to use smaller stakes than you would normally use.
Choinski (1.75) v Gray (2.18)
Due to start at 11:30 am
They haven’t met before.
Choinski has a lot more experience and has had some decent results during lockdown.
Gray is very inexperienced with just 15 matches as a pro. In 2020 he has won 7 of his 8 matches. All of those matches were during July. He beat Liam Broady, Lloyd Glasspool and Ryan Peniston. His last 7 matches were indoors.
Choinski has beaten Liam Broady twice this week. At the start of the week he lost to Cameron Norrie. Those 3 matches give him an advantage as he is very familiar with the courts.
I think we have some value on Gray today and there is a good chance that this goes to 3 sets.
If Choinski gets a very early break lay him and remove liability around 1.75. Back Choinski around 2.10.
Boulter (1.25) v Grey (4.3)
Due to start at 11:30 am
They have not met before.
Overall results are a little better for Boulter over the last 12 months and in 2020. There is very little between their hard court results over the last year.
Boulter has played 5 matches during the pandemic. She won all 4 of her indoor matches 2 weeks ago. This week she started well against Konta but lost the match in the match tie break. Konta had major issues on serve for a set and a half.
Grey has played 24 matches during lockdown. She won 11 of her 14 indoor matches. This week she beat Naomi Broady in her first match. She won in straight sets. Yesterday I expected her to give Jodie Anna Burrage a few problems. She kept the first set tight and came back from being a break behind but still lost the set. She didn’t win a game in the second set. That is a concern as she may have an injury.
If Grey doesn’t pull out before the match she must feel able to compete. Boulter can be very inconsistent. Lay Boulter around 1.15 to 1.20 and remove the liability around 1.40. Back Boulter if she loses the first set.
Matusevich (8.6) v Edmund (1.11)
Due to start at 1 pm
They have never met before.
Matusevich took Broady to 3 sets this week. In his last match he was a fairly strong pre match favourite and won, also in 3 sets.
Edmund has only lost twice during the pandemic. Both losses were to Dan Evans. Yesterday he met Evans for the second time this week. That time he won the match in straight sets. He faced just 3 break points and was broken twice. His other match this week was against inexperienced but big serving Ryan Peniston. Edmund lost the first set in a tie break but scraped through for a win. 6-7, 7-5, 10-6.
Clearly there is no value on Edmund. Matusevich’s best chance of a set seems to be in a tie break. Lay Edmund around 1.07 and remove liability around 1.15 to 1.20.
This would be a bad loss for Edmund. Even in an exhibition.
Burrage (2.7) v Raducanu (1.55)
Due to start at 1 pm
They have met twice. Their first meeting was in an indoor ITF semi final in April 2019. Burrage won in 3 sets. Their most recent match was this week. Raducanu won in straight sets.
Both players have decent overall results. Raducanu has the lead in the last 12 months and Burrage has a much better record in 2020 and has also played a lot more matches.
It is a similar story on hard courts. Both have won 9 of their last 10 on this surface. Raducanu has better results over the last year and Burrage has been much stronger in 2020. Burrage has won 18 of her 22 hard court matches this year. Raducanu has won 2 of 3.
After Raducanu had beaten Burrage in her first match of the week I thought she might give Heather Watson a few more problems than she did. Watson beat her comfortably.
Having been beaten by Raducanu at the start of the week Burrage had an excellent win over Harriet Dart in 3 sets. Yesterday she had a tough first set with Sarah Beth Grey but took the second set 6-0.
This should be a decent match. We have some value on Burrage and a good chance of seeing 3 sets.
Lay Raducanu around 1.35 to 1.40 and remove the liability around 1.80. Lay the set 1 winner.
Evans (1.67) v Norrie (2.3)
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Evans leads their previous matches 2-1 however Norrie beat him earlier this week in 2 tie break sets. Evens’ last win over Norrie was also in lockdown and he won in straight sets. All their matches have been on hard courts.
Their win percentages are quite even in the last year. Evans has better results in 2020.
Is Evans more interested in not picking up an injury rather than winning this week? He lost to Norrie and yesterday lost in straight sets to Kyle Edmund in 2 sets. Those were his only losses during the lockdown.
Norrie has won all 3 of his matches this week. He has served pretty well although lost concentration when he was a set and a break up against Peniston. He lost his serve twice which was enough to lose the set.
This could be very similar to their match from earlier in the week. I suspect it means more to Norrie than it does for Evans. There is a chance that Evans’ pride won’t want to lose twice to Norrie.
This is a tricky one as we can’t see what’s in Evans’ head. If Evans doesn’t have his usual intensity at the start of the match I will look to lay him around 1.40 to 1.45. Remove liability at 1.90.
My gut feeling is that Norrie takes it.
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