***Update: On the men’s final was played yesterday due to rain delays. Thiem beat Berrettini 6-7, 7-6, 10-8.

The men’s third place play off will start at 11 am as will the women’s 3rd place play off. The final between Kvitova and Svitolina will take place on Friday. ****

Firstly the usual message….

Exhibition = REDUCED STAKES

Svitolina made a good start to the week yesterday. Her match with Sevastova gave us a few good trading opportunities. Svitolina was a break up in both sets but Sevastova pulled her back each time.

Berrettini was struggling to make any progress against the Bautista Agut serve but a late break gave him the second set and he took the deciding match tie break.

Thiem’s match with Sinner had just 1 break of serve. In the second set tie break there was even just 1 mini break.

A single break was enough to give Kvitova the first set against Bertens. Bertens took a 2-0 lead in set 2 but then lost 6 games in a row.

ATP Final

Thiem (2.04) v Berrettini (1.87)

Due to start at 11 am

Thiem leads their previous matches 3-2. Thiem’s last win was last month in the gimmicky Ultimate Tennis Showdown. He won in 4 sets. They met 3 times in 2019. Berrettini won indoors at the year end finals and also on an outdoor hard court in Shanghai in October. Thiem won indoors in Vienna in 3 sets. Thiem’s other win was on clay at the French Open in May 2018.

Thiem has better overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Berrettini is stronger on grass. Thiem had a couple of excellent results in 2016 and also made the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2017. Last season Berrettini reached the fourth round at Wimbledon, the semi final in Halle and took the title in Stuttgart.

Thiem’s serve was strong in the last match. As we have seen from him in lockdown his return of serve has been a little toothless.

Berrettini’s serve was also the best part of his game against Bautista Agut. Batista Agut was giving very little away on serve which must have been frustrating. Berrettini has played on 3 different surfaces in 3 weeks. It isn’t easy to make that adjustment quickly but he has done it superbly.

My gut feeling is that Berrettini takes this but it really is a coin toss. I doubt that we will see many breaks of serve.

Laying the first set winner is a good option. This could easily be settled in 3 tie breaks.

WTA Final

Kvitova (1.3) v Svitolina (4.1)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Kvitova leads their previous matches 7-2. Svitolina won their most recent meeting in Singapore in October in 2018. That was indoors and she won in 2 sets. That broke a 6 match winning streak for Kvitova. All their other matches were on hard courts. Only 1 of their matches ended in 3 sets.

Their overall long term results are pretty even but Kvitova has stronger results in 2020. Kvitova’s grass record is significantly better. Svitolina has made improvements to her grass game and reached the semi final at Wimbledon last season.

Svitolina played just her second match in lockdown yesterday. Her first match was a poor loss on clay to Golubic. Yesterday she played much better and beat Sevastova in straight sets. There were a few price swings. She took a strong early lead and was 4-1 up. Sevastova fought back and served for the set at 6-5 but was broken to love. Svitolina easily took the tie break. Svitolina took an immediate lead in set 2 but Sevastova fought back again for 3-3. Svitolina won the next 3 games to take the match.

Kvitova has beaten Bertens and Petkovic in straight sets this week. She was broken just once in each match.

Svitolina should be competitive today. Lay Kvitova around 1.20 and remove liability around 1.50. Back Kvitova if she loses set 1.

WTA 3rd place place off

Sevastova (2.12)v Bertens (1.75)

Due to start at 3 pm

Bertens leads their previous matches 2-1. All their matches were on clay in Madrid!. Bertens won in 2019 and 2018 and Sevastova won in 2017.

Their 12 month overall results strongly favour Bertens. She has also made a better start to 2020. Sevastova has slightly better grass results.

Bertens looked a little rusty yesterday against Kvitova. It was her first match since February. I would expect her to play better today. She had some excellent grass results in 2019 making the third round at Wimbledon, Semi finals at Eastbourne and the final in Hertogenbosch.

Sevastova has had very little success on grass outside Mallorca. That tournament really boosts her results on this surface. She has played well this week.

I give Bertens the advantage for this one. Sevastova will compete well.

Back Bertens around 2.20 to 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

ATP 3rd place play off

Bautista Agut (1.31) v Sinner 3.8)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Their win percentages in the last 12 months are quite even although most of Sinner’s best results were in Challenger tournaments.

Sinner has played well this week. He had a tough 3 set win over retired Tommy Haas. Yesterday his match with Dominic Thiem saw just 1 break of serve.

Bautista Agut has a strong record on grass. He reached the semi final at Wimbledon last year. This week he has won the opening set in both his matches. He beat Struff in a match tie break and lost to Berrettini also in a match tie break.

If Bautista Agut can find a little motivation today I expect him to be too consistent for Sinner. The sets will be close though and I think we will see a higher price on him.

Lay Bautista Agut around 1.20 to 1.25 and remove liability at 1.50. Back him if he loses set 1.

 

We had some decent matches yesterday. The Goerges wasn’t great with Sevastova playing much better than expected and then Goerges twisting an ankle and retiring a game later.

Exhibition = REDUCED STAKES!

ATP

Bautista Agut (2.48) v Berrettini (1.6)

Due to start at 11 am

Berrettini leads their previous matches 5-1. He has won their last 4 meetings. Four of his wins were on clay. They have never met on grass.

Overall results in the last 12 months are slightly better for Bautista Agut although both have been in strong form.

Their win percentages on grass are very similar. Bautista Agut has more grass experience. Last season he reached the semi finals at Wimbledon and quarter finals in Halle. Berrettini reached the fourth round at Wimbledon, the semi finals in Halle and won the title in Stuttgart.

They met twice last week on clay with Berrettini winning both matches in straight sets. He then played an Ultimate Tennis Showdown event in France which he won on hard courts. He now faced another switch of playing surface to grass.

Bautista Agut made a very slow start to his match with Struff yesterday. Struff has had very little success on grass but played an excellent match. Bautista Agut won in the deciding tie break.

Berrettini didn’t seem to struggle when switching from clay to hard courts last week. He is comfortable on grass. This really should be fairly close and we have a good chance of needing the match tie break which replaces the third set.

I expect to see a higher price on Berrettini but he should win. Back him around 1.85 to 1.95. Lay the set 1 winner.

WTA

Svitolina (2.22) v Sevastova (1.66)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Svitolina leads their previous meetings 2-1. Their most recent match was in September 2019 in Beijing. She won in 3 sets on a hard court after Sevastova took the first set in a tie break. They have never met on grass.

Svitolina has stronger 12 month results and also made a better start to 2020. It wasn’t a great start but it was better than Sevastova’s 1 win from 7.

Last season Sevastova reached the semi finals in Mallorca on grass. It is one of her favourite tournaments and she made the final in 2016 and 2018 and won the title in 2017.

Svitolina hadn’t had much success on grass until Wimbledon last season when she reached the semi final. She lost to Halep who went on to beat Serena Williams in the final.

Just before Covid-19 came along Svitolina won the hard court title in Monterrey. She has played just one match since then which she lost on clay to Viktorija Golubic.

As I said above Sevastova had made an awful start to the year with 1 win from 7. Bizarrely her only win was over Serena Williams in a Fed Cup tie in February. Yesterday she played an extremely strong match to beat Julia Goerges who retired half way through the second set.

I agree with Sevastova being the favourite today but I am hoping for a close match. Lay Svitolina if she breaks first. Back Sevastova around 1.90 or wait for her to be broken before backing her.

ATP

Thiem (1.31) v Sinner (3.9)

Due to start around 3 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Much stronger overall results for Thiem in the last 12 months and in 2020. He doesn’t have a great record on grass. In 2016 he won the title in Stuttgart and reached the semi finals in Halle. Since then a fourth round finish at Wimbledon in 2017 is his best result.

Sinner had his break through season in 2019. He has massive potential. Powerful ground strokes and a great attitude. He doesn’t have much experience on grass. Yesterday he came through against Tommy Haas who had not played on the tour for 3 years. I wasn’t sure how well Haas would compete but he looked in great shape. When he recovered from being a set and a break behind to take the second set he seemed to have the momentum but as we know a new set often breaks any momentum. Sinner took the match tie break.

I see some value on Sinner today. Grass isn’t Thiem’s best surface and he might take a little time to adjust after playing a lot of clay matches during the pandemic.

Lay Thiem around 1.20 and remove liability around 1.45. Lay the set 1 winner.

WTA

Kvitova (1.44) v Bertens (2.8)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Their head to head record is 3-3. Bertens has won 3 of their last 4 matches. They last met in Madrid on clay in May last year. Bertens won in straight sets. Kvitova won their only grass match at Wimbledon in June 2015. Bertens won just 1 game that day.

Overall results in the last 12 months are close but slightly favour Bertens. Longer term grass results favour Kvitova. She reached the fourth round at Wimbledon last year. She won the title there in 2014. She won the title in Birmingham in 2018 and 2017. Bertens only reached the third round at Wimbledon on 2019 but also made the semi finals in Eastbourne and the final in Hertogenbosch. She reached the Wimbledon quarter finals in 2018.

Bertens has not played during lockdown. Her last match was in Doha in February. Kvitova has played 2 matches during the pandemic including a straight sets win over Petkovic yesterday. It was a typical Kvitova match. She looked like she was in control but a few too many errors or wild swings gave Petkovic more chances than she should have had.

This won’t be easy for Bertens. She will be a little match rusty. Kvitova is priced too low though as she will give Bertens a helping hand on more than one occasion. If Kvitova breaks in the early games lay her. Back Kvitova if she goes a break behind or loses set 1.