The main draw matches start this afternoon. Those matches are covered in the Trading Tips email

We have a few qualifying round matches to be decided today.

Arruabarrena (2.02) v Sasnovich (1.83)

Due to start at 3 pm

Head to heads are 1-1. their most recent meeting was in July 2016 on clay. Arruabarrena won in 3 sets. Sasnovich won indoors in 2013 in 2 sets.

Their overall 12 month results are slightly better for Arruabarrena but they are pretty even in 2020. There also isn’t too much between them on clay.

Arruabarrena had a very good win over Greetja Minnen in the first round of qualifying. She won in 3 sets. In the second round she was more comfortable against Di Giuseppe losing just 5 games. She has played just 4 matches during Covid. All of them were on clay. Her 2 losses were both to Sara Sorribes Tormo. One of them went to 3 sets.

Sasnovich won her first match in qualifying in straight sets and came through against Martincova yesterday when her opponent retired after the first set. Those were her first matches since February.

Sasnovich served well against Martincova facing just 2 break points in their only set. Arruabarrena has also served well. She was broken twice by Minnen i 3 sets and broken once in the last round.

This one should be tight. There is a very good chance that it goes to 3 sets. I give a slight edge to Arruabarrena.

Lay Sasnovich around 1.50 to 1.60 and remove the liability around 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.

Dodin (2.22) v Podoroska (1.75)

Due to start around 4:30 pm

Podoroska won their only previous meeting in August 2016. That was at the US Open on a hard court. She won in straight sets.

Their overall results in the last 12 months are quite even. Podoroska has slightly better results in 2020. She has won 23 of 26 matches (88%) compared to Dodin’s 14 wins from 18 matches. (78%)

They are pretty even on clay courts.

Neither player has played exhibition matches during Covid.

Podoroska was comfortable against Jani in the first round of qualifying. She seemed to be in control against Bonaventure yesterday but lost a tight second set. She faced 25 break points in that match and was broken 9 times.

Dodin also had a comfortable first round of qualifying. She lost just 4 games to 856th ranked Federica Bilardo. She seemed to be too strong for Wickmayer in the second round and took their opening set 6-2 but Wickmayer fought back to take the second set 6-1. Dodin easily took the deciding set. Dodin was only broken twice in the 3 sets.

There is some value on Dodin today. We have a chance that it goes to 3 sets. Lay Podoroska round 1.50 and remove some or all of the liability around 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.

 

I stayed away from the first round of qualifying but as these players have won a match we can trade them.

Gracheva (1.73) v Trevisan (2.2)

3 pm

Head to heads are 1-1. Their most recent match was at the US Open last year on a hard court Gracheva won very easily losing just 1 game. Trevisan won on clay in July 2019 in 3 sets.

Their overall results for the last 12 months and also for 2020 are quite even. Both players have good records on clay but Gracheva is particularly strong. She has had extremely strong results on the IF tour. She has won her last 10 matches and 41 of her last 50. She won 12 of 13 in the last year. Trevisan won 20 of her 26 clay matches in the last 12 months. She has won 7 of her last 10.

Gracheva lost just 1 game in her first qualifying match. Trevisan also won in straight sets in the last round. She faced a strong opponent. Her second serve was poor winning just 29% of points on it. She was broken 6 times.

I have to favour Gracheva to win but Trevisan should give her a few problems. Back Gracheva around 2.00 to 2.10. Back Gracheva if she loses set 1.

Martincova (1.71) v Sasnovich (2.22)

3 pm

Martincova won their only previous meeting. That was in May 2017 on clay. She won comfortably in 2 sets.

Overall results slightly favour Martincova in the last 12 months but they are quite even in 2020. Sasnovich doesn’t have a great record on clay. Martincova’s clay record isn’t amazing but she won an ITF title last year and reached the semi finals of another tournament. Both tournaments were in May 2019.

Martincova made a slow start to her match in the last round despite having played 6 clay matches during the pandemic. She lost the first set to Leone Kung but easily won the next 2 sets. Her serve stats weren’t bad.

Sasnovich was playing her first match since February but won in straight sets. She was strong pre match favourite but was broken 5 times and hit 6 double faults. Her serve stats weren’t terrible. She found the court with 71% of her first serves.

Martincova should take this one. Back her above 2.00

Podoroska (1.55) v Bonaventure (2.5)

4:30 pm

They have not met before.

Overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 are significantly stronger for Podoroska. She has won 22 of her 25 matches this season. Her clay results are also a little stronger.

Bonaventure missed parts of 2019 through injury. She has not played a match during the lockdown. In the last round she started as a 1.50 favourite against 183 ranked Indy De Vroome. She was broken 3 times in the first set. She improved after that and was broken once in set 2 which she won in a tie break. She was broken at the start of the deciding set but won 6 of the next 7 games. She faced 17 break points and was broken 5 times.

Podoroska has also not played a match during Covid. She started her match in the last round as 1.47 favourite. She won it pretty comfortably in 2 sets. She faced just 2 break points and was broken once. She did hit 5 double faults.

Bonaventure has the ability on clay to keep this match close but her form in the last year suggests that she will struggle. She did reach the quarter finals at WTA Rabat in April 2019 as a qualifier.

I’d like a better price on Podoroska. Back her around 1.85 to 1.90 or wait for her to get broken before backing.

Kostyuk (2.02) v Samsonova (1.92)

6 pm

Samsonova won their only previous meeting. That was in January this season in Brisbane. She won on a hard court in 2 very tight sets.

Their overall results in the last 12 months and in 2020 are fairly even. They both have decent results on clay. They have both won 8 of their last 10 matches on clay.

Samsonova has played just 1 exhibition during Covid. It was on clay and she won all 4 of her matches as a sub 1.30 favourite. She lost just 1 set. In her match yesterday she beat Tereza Mrdeza in straight sets. She was only broken 3 times although one of them was when she served for the match.

Kostyuk has also only played 1 event during the pandemic. The Ukraine must have been short of players as she played just 2 matches against the same player. She won both on clay in straight sets. In the last round she lost just 3 games against Daniela Seguel. Those 3 games were all breaks of serve.

I think this will be close and we have a fair chance of seeing 3 sets. I am giving Samsonova a slight edge today. Lay Kostyuk if she breaks first and remove the liability around 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.