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ATP Indian Wells Final
Norrie v Basilashvili
Due to start at midnight
Norrie 1-0 (Mar 2021, indoor, 2 sets).
Long term hard win % favour Norrie. His results in the last year are a littler better. Basilashvili’s ROI in 2021 is much higher. Stats for the tournament favour Norrie for everything except service holds. Stats for their last 10 on hard courts favour Norrie.
In the last round Basilashvili served well and was not broken. He faced 7 bp. Fritz faced just 1 bp which was taken.
In Norrie’s last match he only faced 2 bp and was broken once (when a double break ahead). Dimitrov had opportunities to get back into the match but each time he fell short.
This can go either way. Norrie’s level dropped a little in the 2nd set against Dimitrov but Dimitrov was below the level he had showed in previous rounds so Norrie didn’t need to play at a high level. Basilashvili is serving well but still faced 7 bp. Norrie’s return game is stronger than Fritz’ and I’d expect him to convert some break chances.
Some value on Basilashvili. Norrie will need to match Basilashvili on serve. If he does that, his return game is stronger and he wins. Back Norrie above 2.00. Back him if he loses set 1.
Update: Norrie won the first break of serve to lead 2-1. Basilashvili broke back for 3-3. He won the next 3 games to take the set. In set 2, Basilashvili got the first break to lead 2-1 but was immediately broken back. Another late break for Norrie gave him the set. The deciding set was one sided. Norrie took a 3-1 lead and added another break near the end.
Norrie won 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.