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Keys 7-0. Most recent Jan 2020, hard, 2 sets. All matches were on hard. Only 1 of them in 2016 went to 3 sets.
Keys made a slow start in the last round but after that looked pretty solid. She served pretty well.
Kasatkina also served well although her opponent was injured and retired. She did well in the 2 tournaments either side of the Aus Open last season. She reached the final in San Jose and q finals in Cleveland in Aug. Also 3rd rounds at the US Open and in Indian Wells. This is perhaps Kasatkina’s best chance of finally beating Keys but I think it will be tight.
Lay Kasatkina around 1.50 to 1.55 and remove liab at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner. I think, based on her last match, that Keys is on her way back after a very dodgy couple of years. I give her the edge.
Update: Kasatkina went a break of serve ahead 3 times in the first set. Keys broke back each time which worked out well. IN the tie break, Keys went 3-1 up but couldn’t hold on to the lead. Kasatkina took the tie break.
In the second set, Keys immediately broke the Kasatkina serve. She took another break near the end of the set and levelled the match.
Keys broke serve at the start of the deciding set but was broken straight back. She broke again for a 3-2 lead but didn’t win another game.
Kasatkina won 7-6, 2-6, 6-3. Several nice trades in this one.