Daily match picks

First round
Kenin 2.84 v Keys 1.53

Due to start at 6 am

Keys 3-1. Most recent June 2020, clay, Keys in 3. She won both their hard court matches.

Long term hard win %’s are a little better for Kenin. They were fairly even on hard courts in the last 12 months. Keys has made a much better start to the new season.

Keys won the title last week and has started 2022 strongly. She reached the 2nd round in Melbourne 2 weeks ago, losing to Kasatkina in 3 sets. She has a decent record at the Australian Open.

Kenin reached the q finals in Adelaide 2 weeks ago but was poor last week. She won this title in 2020 and her form suffered after that until the US Open where she reached the 4th round. She had a poor season in 2021.

Back Keys around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.40.

Update: No breaks in the first set. They had 1 bp each. Keys took the set in a tie break. In set 2 there were no breaks in the first 8 games. Keys broke for a 5-4 lead. She was then broken when serving for the match. She broke Kenin again and this time, served out the set.

Keys won 7-6, 7-5. No trade

 

Krejcikova 2.28 v Badosa 1.76

Due to start at 6 am

Badosa 2-0. Most recent Oct 2021, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Win percentages on hard slightly favour Krejcikova.

Badosa has lost just 1 set this week. That was against Bencic in the quarter final. She had a surprisingly comfortable win over Kasatkina in the last round. As expected, Kasatkina could not repeat her level of play from the previous round where she beat Muguruza in straight sets.

Krejcikova was very poor in the 1st set with Kontaveit in the semi final. She struggled on serve and did not win a game in that set. She improved in set 2 and a late break gave her the chance to serve for the set which she did successfully. She took the 3rd set and the match in a very long tie break.

Stats for the tournament favour Badosa for everything except service holds. Stats for their last 10 hard matches also favour Badosa for everything except service holds. Good chance of 3 sets.

Back Badosa around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Badosa broke serve in the first game of the match. Krejcikova broke back for 2-2. Two more breaks for Badosa gave her the set. I laid Badosa after the set.

Krejcikova broke serve in the first game of the set. I removed some liability. Badosa broke back for 3-3. Krejcikova broke for 5-4 lead and easily served out the set. I hedged.

In the deciding set, Badosa broke first for a 2-0 lead. She was immediately broken back. There would be no more breaks. In the tie break, Krejcikova won the first mini break but 3 mini breaks for Badosa put her in control. She took the set and the match.

Badosa won 6-3, 4-6, 7-6.