Krejcikova 2.28 v Badosa 1.76
Due to start at 6 am
Badosa 2-0. Most recent Oct 2021, hard, 2 sets. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. Win percentages on hard slightly favour Krejcikova.
Badosa has lost just 1 set this week. That was against Bencic in the quarter final. She had a surprisingly comfortable win over Kasatkina in the last round. As expected, Kasatkina could not repeat her level of play from the previous round where she beat Muguruza in straight sets.
Krejcikova was very poor in the 1st set with Kontaveit in the semi final. She struggled on serve and did not win a game in that set. She improved in set 2 and a late break gave her the chance to serve for the set which she did successfully. She took the 3rd set and the match in a very long tie break.
Stats for the tournament favour Badosa for everything except service holds. Stats for their last 10 hard matches also favour Badosa for everything except service holds. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Badosa around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay the set 1 winner.
Update: Badosa broke serve in the first game of the match. Krejcikova broke back for 2-2. Two more breaks for Badosa gave her the set. I laid Badosa after the set.
Krejcikova broke serve in the first game of the set. I removed some liability. Badosa broke back for 3-3. Krejcikova broke for 5-4 lead and easily served out the set. I hedged.
In the deciding set, Badosa broke first for a 2-0 lead. She was immediately broken back. There would be no more breaks. In the tie break, Krejcikova won the first mini break but 3 mini breaks for Badosa put her in control. She took the set and the match.
Badosa won 6-3, 4-6, 7-6.