Daily match picks

WTA Cincinnati, Quarter Final

Kerber v Kvitova

Due to start around 6 pm

Kvitova 8-7. Most recent June 2021, grass, Kerber in 3rd set tie break. Kvitova won on clay in 2021. Kvitova won their last hard court match in 2019, 2 sets.

Long term hard win % favour Kvitova. She won 33 from her last 50. Kerber won 29 of 50. Stats for the tournament favour Kvitova.

Kvitova has not lost a set this week. All 3 of her opponents had the potential to give her some real problems. She was broken in all 3 matches but only Kudermetova in round 2 broke her twice.

Kerber will be competitive but I think she will need to serve a little more consistently if she is to have a chance to win. She beat Sakkari surprisingly easily in the first round as underdog. She was also underdog against Svitolina. Against Ostapenko in the last round, Kerber was pre match favourite. Ostapenko was striking the ball very well in the third round and took the first set. She also had a 3-0 lead in the third set before Kerber made her comeback. Kerber needed 2 attempts to serve out the match.

Back Kvitova round 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: A single late break gave Kerber the chance to serve for the set. It wasn’t an early hold but she took the set. In the second set, Kvitova took a 3-0 lead but was feeling ill and spoke to the doctor. She didn’t look well at all and also had another MTO. When Kerber got back to 3-3, Kvitova retired.

Kerber won 6-4, 3-3(ret)

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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WTA Cincinnati, 3rd round

Kerber v Ostapenko

Due to start at 4 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent may 2021, clay, Ostapenko in 3. Kerber won on grass in 2018.

Both have won 30 of their last 50 matches. Kerber has the better long term win % on hard courts. Ostapenko has won 22 of her last 50 on hard. Stats for the tournament favour Ostapenko on serve! She has held 78% of service games. Kerber has been better on return.

Kerber has beaten Sakkari and Svitolina this week. Kerber has found some form in 2021 that I thought was beyond her. She reached the 3rd round in Rome on clay but it was the grass season that gave her back her confidence. She won her home tournament in Hamburg and backed that up with a semi at Wimbledon.

Ostapenko was a set down to Brady in the last round before Brady had to retire with a leg injury.

Back Kerber around 2.20 and remove liability around 1.60. Fair chance of 3 sets if Ostapenko continues to serve well.

Update: Tight first set. Kerber faced 2 bp when serving at 2-3 and we got our entry price. He held serve. In the next game Kerber had a break point and we had our exit price! Job done.

A late break gave the set to Ostapenko. Kerber ran away with set 2 and broke Ostapenko 3 times. Set 3 was a bit of a mess. Ostapenko took a 3-0 lead. Kerber broke back , was broken again and broke back again for 4-4. Another break for Kerber gave her the chance to serve for the match. Guess what? She was broken. yet another break meant that Kerber was serving for the match for a second time. This time she held to 0.

Kerber won 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.

WTA Cincinnati, 3rd round

Krejcikova v Muguruza

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Muguruza 1-0 (Mar 2021, hard, 2 sets). Long term hard win % favour Muguruza. She has 38 wins from her last 50. Krejcikova won 33 of 50.

Krejcikova beat Yastremska in 2 sets in the last round. She faced 7 break points but was not broken. She beat Kasatkina in the 1st round. Krejcikova looked a little vulnerable in the last round but Yast was not able to take advantage.

Muguruza was comfortable in the last round against Garcia. She faced just 2 break points and was not broken. She reached the q finals in Tokyo. In March, she won the title in Dubai and reached the final in Doha.

Back Muguruza around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Fair chance of 3 sets.

Update: Krejcikova made the better start and took the set 6-1. Laying the set winner proved profitable but it would have been tough to stay in the trade. There were no breaks in the second set and they went to a tie break. Muguruza took the set. Krejcikova was the stronger player in set 3.

Krejcikova won 6-1, 6-7, 6-2.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
I will email you my notes 7 days a week.

Click here to sign up NOW>>>