Daily match picks

Zhu (2.46) v Zheng (1.67)

Due to start at 7 pm

Zheng has won all 3 of their previous matches. The last time they met was in July 2018 on a hard court in Nanchang. She won in 3 sets, All their matches were on hard courts and the last 2 went to a deciding set.

Overall results are better for Zhu. Her long term hard court results are also stronger.

Even though Zhu has the better results she hasn’t made it through many second rounds on hard courts. The last time was in Acapulco in February last season. This week she beat Bouchard in 2 very tight sets. Bouchard reached the final last week in Guadalajara.

Zheng has won 1 of 7 on hard courts this season. She beat Gracheva in straight sets as underdog in the last round. Before this week the last time she made it through the first round was in Doha in February 2020.

Some value on Zhu and I think we get 3 sets. Lay Zheng around 1.40 and remove or reduce your liability at 1.80. Lay the winner of the first set.

Update: Absolutely awful performance from Zhu. Zheng’s price graph will have been a straight line down to 1.01. No real chance to manage the position other than to take the hit. Disappointing.
Zheng won 6-1, 6-2.

 

Third round

Sonego (2.5) v Karatsev (1.65)

Due to start at 11:30 am

This will be their first meeting.

Long term overall win percentages are better for Karatsev. He has won 50 of his 63 matches in the last 12 months. His hard results are also stronger which isn’t a surprise as Sonego has a poor hard court record.

Karatsev beat Egor Gerasimov in 2 close sets in the first round. He was broken twice. He hit 6 double faults which is a little too high. He had a tough 3 sets win over Dan Evans in the last round. He hit another 6 double faults. His first serve was excellent. He was broken 4 times in their 3 sets. Karatsev reached the semi finals of the Australian Open last month as a qualifier.

Hard courts are Sonego’s weakest surface. He is strong on clay and indoor hard courts but often struggles on this surface. He has won 2 of his last 10 and 25 of his last 50. He had a comfortable 2 sets win in the last round over Bernabe Zapata Miralles. He served well and saved the 3 break points that he faced. He reached the second round at the US Open in 2019 but since then his only win on hard before this week was over Sam Querrey at the Australian Open in February.

Back Karatsev around 1.95 to 2.10

Update: It wasn’t a great first set from Karatsev although had he taken 1 of the 4 break points he wasted it would have been a different set. He was a lot better in the second set and a single very late break allowed him to serve for the set which he did easily.
In the third set it was another single break that gave him the lead and he hung on to it.
Karatsev won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.