Daily match picks

Third round

Vondrousova (1.67) v Cirstea (2.44)

Due to start at Midnight

This will be the first time they played.

Their long term win percentages on all surfaces are pretty even. Cirstea has better results in the last year. She also leads on hard courts.

Sorana Cirstea had an easy first round win over Patricia Maria Tig. She lost just 3 games. She beat Petra Kvitova in 3 sets in the last round. She was a huge underdog. I had expected her to take Kvitova to 3 sets but was surprised to see her take the place in the third round. She was broken 5 times in their 3 sets and hit 8 double faults. Last week she reached the quarter finals in the Grampians Trophy. She won the title in the ITF hard court tournament in December. Despite being an ITF event there were some excellent players taking part. She made the third round at the US Open and the second round at the Australian Open in 2020.

Marketa Vondrousova dropped a set to Rebecca Peterson in the first round. She was more comfortable in the last round against Rebecca Marino. Marino had come through the qualifying rounds. She had 11 chances to break the Vondrousova serve but only converted 2 of those chances. She played well last week in the Yarra Valley Classic and reached the semi finals where she lost easily to Garbine Muguruza. She reached the second round at the US Open in August and lost in the first round of the Australian Open in 2020.

Cirstea is in great form and i give her the edge to take a close match. The value is on her. Lay Vondrousova around 1.40 and remove or reduce your liability at 1.80. Back Cirstea if she lose the first set.

 

Semi Final. Please note that the final will not be played. The winners of the semi finals will each receive finalist ranking points and prize money.

Sakkari (1.67) v Kontaveit (2.46)

Due to start at midnight

Sakkari leads their previous matches 4-3. The last time they met was in May 2019 in Rome. Sakkari won on clay in straight sets. Sakkari leads 3-2 on hard courts. All their matches have ended in 2 sets. They met twice on hard courts in 2018 and won a match each.

Long term overall win percentages favour Kontaveit although Sakkari has the better ROI. Sakkari’s overall results in the last year are a little better. She also has a higher ROI. It is the same pattern on hard courts.

Sakkari made a very bad start in the last round against Angelique Kerber. Her serve was terrible and she was twice a break behind but managed to break Kerber back each time. At 4-4 Kerber still seemed to have the edge. She was serving and 40-0 up. She then pretty much fell apart. She was broken and Sakkari held her serve to take the set. The second set was very one sided. She has not lost a set this week.

Kontaveit also has not lost as et in the tournament. She was very comfortable against Christina McHale in the first round and lost just 4 games. She had to work a lot harder in the second round against Bethane Mattek Sands. Mattek Sands had beaten Barbora Strycova as underdog in the previous round. She broke the American’s serve in the first game of the match. She held on to the lead until she served for the set at 5-4 but was broken. Another Kontaveit break in the next game gave her another chance to serve for the set. This time she served it out comfortably. It was a very similar pattern in the second set. Kontaveit broke serve in the third game of the set. She was serving at 4-3 up when Mattek Sands broke back. Another late break allowed her to serve for the match. She won 7-5, 7-5.

Stats for the tournament favour Sakkari for everything except service holds. She had a nightmare on serve for most of the first set against Angelique Kerber. Back Sakkari around 2.00 to 2.10 or if she loses the first set.

Update: Sakkari easily took the opening set and Kontaveit won the second set. In the match tie break Sakkari took a 3-0 lead but it was Kontaveit who came out on top.
Kontaveit won 2-6, 6-3, 11-9