Daily match picks

Giorgi (1.90) v Paterson (2.08)

Due to start around 6 pm

Their head to heads are 1-1. They last met in September 2019 on a hard court in Wuhan. Giorgi retired. Giorgi won on a hard court in Washington, Also in 2019. She won in 3 sets.

Overall results favour Peterson in the last 12 months. Giorgi has better 2020 results. Peterson has stronger long term clay results.

Giorgi reached the 3rd round of the French Open in 2018. She had some good results that season including a semi final in Prague and a quarter final finish in Lugano. She has not played on clay since 2018.

Peterson has won just 2 of her 6 matches in 2020. She ended last season with a hard court title in Tianjin in October. Her last match on clay was her second round loss to Donna Vekic at last year’s French Open. Her best clay results were in ITF tournaments before she made the move up to the main WTA tour in 2019.

It is tricky to predict the winner. I give Giorgi the edge but I think we will get 3 sets. Lay Peterson if she breaks first and remove the liability when Giorgi breaks back. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Peterson took the first break of serve and led 3-1. Giorgi immediately broke back and a late break gave her the set. In set 2 she took a double break lead. Giorgi was broken serving for the match at 5-2 but managed to serve out at 5-4.
Giorgi won 7-5, 6-4.

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The main draw matches start this afternoon. Those matches are covered in the Trading Tips email

We have a few qualifying round matches to be decided today.

Arruabarrena (2.02) v Sasnovich (1.83)

Due to start at 3 pm

Head to heads are 1-1. their most recent meeting was in July 2016 on clay. Arruabarrena won in 3 sets. Sasnovich won indoors in 2013 in 2 sets.

Their overall 12 month results are slightly better for Arruabarrena but they are pretty even in 2020. There also isn’t too much between them on clay.

Arruabarrena had a very good win over Greetja Minnen in the first round of qualifying. She won in 3 sets. In the second round she was more comfortable against Di Giuseppe losing just 5 games. She has played just 4 matches during Covid. All of them were on clay. Her 2 losses were both to Sara Sorribes Tormo. One of them went to 3 sets.

Sasnovich won her first match in qualifying in straight sets and came through against Martincova yesterday when her opponent retired after the first set. Those were her first matches since February.

Sasnovich served well against Martincova facing just 2 break points in their only set. Arruabarrena has also served well. She was broken twice by Minnen i 3 sets and broken once in the last round.

This one should be tight. There is a very good chance that it goes to 3 sets. I give a slight edge to Arruabarrena.

Lay Sasnovich around 1.50 to 1.60 and remove the liability around 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.

Dodin (2.22) v Podoroska (1.75)

Due to start around 4:30 pm

Podoroska won their only previous meeting in August 2016. That was at the US Open on a hard court. She won in straight sets.

Their overall results in the last 12 months are quite even. Podoroska has slightly better results in 2020. She has won 23 of 26 matches (88%) compared to Dodin’s 14 wins from 18 matches. (78%)

They are pretty even on clay courts.

Neither player has played exhibition matches during Covid.

Podoroska was comfortable against Jani in the first round of qualifying. She seemed to be in control against Bonaventure yesterday but lost a tight second set. She faced 25 break points in that match and was broken 9 times.

Dodin also had a comfortable first round of qualifying. She lost just 4 games to 856th ranked Federica Bilardo. She seemed to be too strong for Wickmayer in the second round and took their opening set 6-2 but Wickmayer fought back to take the second set 6-1. Dodin easily took the deciding set. Dodin was only broken twice in the 3 sets.

There is some value on Dodin today. We have a chance that it goes to 3 sets. Lay Podoroska round 1.50 and remove some or all of the liability around 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.