Daily match picks

Just 10 days until we get proper tennis!

This one’s an exhibition so use REDUCED STAKES.

Marterer (2) v Stebe (1.78)

Due to start at 11:30 am

Stebe leads their previous meetings 2-1. They last met earlier this week. Stebe won comfortably in 2 sets. He has won both their clay matches. Marterer won on a hard court at the Australian Open in 2018.

Their win percentages on all surfaces in the last 12 months are very even. Stebe has played a lot more matches.

Longer term clay results favour Stebe but they are evenly matches in 2020 with each player winning over 70% of their matches.

Marterer has played 15 matches during the pandemic. He won 11 of those but his only decent win was over Yannik Hanfmann earlier this week.

Stebe has played 14 clay matches during the lockdown. He has won 10 of them. He has also played a lot of low ranked opponents but does have 2 wins over Daniel Masur, a win over Yannick Maden and this week’s win over Marterer.

This should be competitive but I have to favour Stebe. Back him around 2.20 but if he gets a very early break, lay him and remove liability if Marterer breaks back.

Update: Stebe broke Marterer’s serve in the first game of the match. Marterer eventually broke back for 4-4 and then broke again to take the set. In set 2 Stebe broke in the first game and raced to a 5-1 lead. He served for the set at 5-2 but was injured and was forced to retire.
Marterer won 6-4, 2-5(ret). Note that when Stebe was a double break up in the second set that was the time to either remove liability or to hedge as his price would not have dropped much further in the set.

Hanfmann (1.62) v Otte (2.26)

Due to start at 1 pm

Hanfmann leads their previous matches 2-1. Both their clay matches were during Covid. Otte won their match this week in 3 sets. Hanfmann had beaten him quite easily 2 weeks ago.

Overall results are a lot stronger for Hanfmann in the last 12 months and also in 2020. He has won 40 of his 52 matches (77%) this season. Otte has won 11 of 18 (61%).

Their win percentages on clay are quite similar but Hanfmann has played significantly more matches this season. He has played 37 clay matches compared to Otte’s 13 matches. Hanfmann has won 31 of those matches (84%) in 2020.

Otte has won all 3 of his matches this week as underdog. We have some value on him today and I think we will see 3 sets.

Lay Hanfmann if he gets the first break of serve and remove liability when Otte breaks back. Otte has lifted his level this week but I expect Hanfmann to want some revenge. Back Hanfmann around 2.20 to 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Otte was broken in the first game of the match but he immediately broke back. He took a 5-2 lead and served for the set at 5-3 but was broken. Hanfmann took the set 7-5. In the second set Hanfmann broke for a 2- lead and Otte retired.
Hanfmann won 7-5, 2-1(ret)

 

There aren’t many matches that look promising today. This started off as a larger selection. Not all of them appeared on Betfair. Here are a couple that do. If I find any more I will add them.

As they are EXHIBITIONS you’re advised to use reduced stakes.

ATP Eastern European Championship

Krajinovic (1.34) v Djere (3.6)

Due to start around 5 pm

Krajinovic leads their previous matches 4-2. He has won their last 4 meetings. The last 2 were in 2019. He won indoors in Basel in October and on clay in Hamburg in July. Both of Djere’s wins were on clay in 2017.

Overall results strongly favour Krajinovic in the last 12 months. He also leads in 2020 but his lead isn’t so big. They are fairly closely matched on clay. Krajinovic has the higher ROI in 2020.

All Krajinovic’s matches during Covid have been on clay. He survived Djokovic’s Adria Exhibition and actually beat Djokovic that week and also took Thiem and Zverev to 3 sets. He has been unbeaten in his 4 matches since then although his highest ranked opponent was 487th ranked Aldin Setkic.

Djere has also only played on clay during the pandemic. He has played 7 matches. He was very strong pre match favourite in all of them. His only loss was his first during the lockdown against Mirza Basic.

Krajinovic has faced tougher opponents. I have to favour him to win but if Djere can find some motivation his best chances against Krajinovic will always be on a clay court.

Lay Krajinovic if he gets a very early break of serve and remove the liability if Djere breaks back. Back Krajinovic around 1.80 or if he loses set 1.

Coric (2.74) v Dzumhur (1.45)

Due to start around 7 pm

Dzumhur won their only previous meeting. That was in July 2014 in the quarter final of the San Benedetto Challenger in Italy. He won in straight sets.

Overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 favour Dzumhur. He also has better clay results this season.

Coric’s only other event during the CoronaVirus was the Djokovic Adria Exhibition. He was not as fortunate as Krajinovic and tested positive for Covid-19. Yesterday he retired early in the match tie break after he and Alexandar Lazarov shared 2 tie break sets.

Dzumhur is another player who has only played on clay during the lockdown. He has played 8 matches and his only loss was to Dominic Thiem when he retired after 2 games.

Coric managed to compete for 2 sets before retiring. If he doesn’t pull out before this match he is likely to want to try to win in straight sets.

Lay Dzumhur if he gets an early break of serve. Back Dzumhur around 1.90 to 2.00.