Daily match picks

Just 2 weeks until the main tennis tour start up again!

Yesterday’s matches were pretty decent overall. Svitolina just wasn’t interested in her match with Sevastova and won just 2 games. perfect example of why we reduce stakes for exhibitions. There is hardly anything at stake for the players.

EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES

ATP

Haas (4)v Bautista Agut (1.28)

Due to start at 11 am.

They never met before.

Haas has played well this week. He beat Struff in 2 tie breaks and kept his match with Thiem close yesterday. He was only broken twice.

Bautista Agut lost to Sinner yesterday. He started as moderate favourite. He was broken 3 times.

Most of the players this week have been poor on return. We are likely to see tie breaks in this one. Bautista Agut doesn’t tend to break serve often even when at his best. Lay him around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.40.

I would think this match means more to Haas than to Bautista Agut.

WTA

Svitolina (1.47) v Petkovic (2.78)

Due to start around 12:30 pm

Svitolina has won all 3 of their previous meetings. All their matches have been on hard courts. Their most recent was in 2016 at the Rio Olympics.

Overall results strongly favour Svitolina in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Both have decent records indoors but Svitolina’s is better.

Why was Svitolina so poor yesterday after beating Petra Kvitova the day before? I suppose she could have been ill. Even if she wasn’t interested you would have expected her to win more than 2 games against Sevastova on what is probably her favourite surface. More importantly for us how will she perform today?

Petkovic pushed Kvitova very close yesterday. She was broken in the very first game of the match but broke the Kvitova serve twice to take a 3-1 lead and that was enough to take the set. Kvitova won in the match tie break third set.

This is a very difficult one to predict. Were both Svitolina and Kvitova affected by their match the previous day? If Svitolina wasn’t interested then I doubt that she will be interested today. If she was ill then she is likely to be affected again today.

Petkovic has played pretty well this week and especially so when you consider that this is the first event she has played in 2020.

Lay Svitolina around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability around 1.50. I expect Petkovic to at least be competitive.

ATP

Thiem (1.44) v Sinner (2.96)

Due to start at 3 pm

They have met just once before which was on grass earlier this week. There was just 1 break of serve and Thiem won in straight sets.

Both players have strong indoor records. Sinner has more experience on indoor courts than he does on grass.

I keep saying that Thiem’s return game has been weak this week and that continued in his win over Haas yesterday. We are unlikely to see many breaks and Sinner could take a tie break set.

Lay Thiem around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability around 1.55. Lay the set 1 winner.

WTA

Kvitova (1.53) v Sevastova (2.72)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Their head to heads are 2-2. Their last meeting was on clay in Stuttgart in April 2019. Kvitova won in 3 sets. Her other win was in 2011 on grass and also went to 3 sets. Both Sevastova’s wins were on hard courts. She won in 3 sets in 2010 and straight sets in 2009.

Overall results favour Kvitova in the last 12 months and also in 2020. She has won 18 of her 24 matches this year.

There isn’t too much between them indoors. Sevastova has beaten Bertens and Svitolina this week. In February she beat Serena Williams in a Fed Cup tie.

Kvitova made a slow start against Petkovic yesterday but fought back to win in the match tie break. I give her the edge today but expect to see a higher price on her.

Lay Kvitova if she breaks in the early games. Remove liability when Sevastova breaks back. Back Kvitova if she is a break of serve down or if she loses set 1.

 

EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES!

These matches are played on clay. Two normal sets and a third set will be a match tie break to 10 points.

Muchova (2.04) v Swiatek (1.83)

Due to start at 11 am

Muchova won their only previous meeting. That was on clay in April 2019 in Prague. She won in 3 sets.

Overall results in the last 12 months favour Swiatek. She also made a better start to 2020.

Swiatek has an excellent record on clay and has won 42 of her last 50. Most of those matches were in ITF tournaments.

Muchova has played well during the lockdown. She has beaten Strycova, Siniakova and Kristyna Pliskova on clay.

Swiatek has played just 2 matches during the pandemic. Those were on clay earlier this month. She won both as very strong favourite.

This should be a close match. There’s a decent chance that it goes to 3 sets.

Lay Swiatek around 1.50 and remove liability around 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.

Martincova (3.02) v Bencic (1.33)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Bencic has won both their previous meetings. the most recent was on grass in June 2018. She won in straight sets. They have not met on clay.

Their overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 are quite even.

There isn’t too much between their clay results although if we compare just those matches in the main tour events Bencic leads.

Bencic has played just 3 matches during the Covid-19 shutdown. All were on clay. She lost her last match in 3 sets to Schmiedlova.

Martincova has played fairly well on clay during the pandemic. She beat Kristyna Pliskova and Muchova in 3 sets. She lost in 3 sets to Strycova as pre match underdog.

If Bencic plays well she will win but that loss to Schmiedlova was as a very low priced favourite.

I have to favour Bencic to win but we can try a small lay on her around 1.20 to 1.25 and remove the liability at 1.45 to 1.50.

Back Bencic if she goes a break behind and Martincova also holds her own serve.