Daily match picks

EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES

We had some interesting matches yesterday. Sinner took a tight match in 2 sets over Khachanov. Tommy Haas started as massive underdog against Struff. He took an early 3-0 lead. Struff pulled him back and seemed to be on his way to winning the tie break but Haas took it. He also took the second set in a tie break.

As expected the fact that the WTA final was moved from grass to an indoor court tipped things towards Svitolina. She broke the Kvitova serve right at the start but Kvitova came back to take a scrappy first set. In the second set Svitolina sorted her serve out and easily levelled the match. She was the stronger player in the match tie break.

Bertens was disappointing against Sevastova. She made far too many errors and clearly has some work to do in the next few weeks.

ATP

Sinner (2.64) v Bautista Agut (1.56)

Due to start at 11 am

This will be their first meeting.

Their win percentages in the last year are quite even although Sinner’s were played mostly in Challengers. His results indoor were stronger.

Bautista Agut has a good long term record indoors but in the last couple of seasons he has just 2 quarter finals and a semi final to his name.

Sinner has already played on this court which is inside an aircraft hanger. Despite being labelled an indoor court one side of it is completely open to the elements.

We have some value on Sinner today. If he can serve well we are likely to see at least 1 tie break. Lay Bautista Agut around 1.30 and remove the liability at 1.60. As it should be a close match laying the first set winner is a good option.

WTA

Petkovic (4.7) v Kvitova (1.21)

Due to start at 12:30 pm

Their head to head record is 6-6. Their last meeting was earlier this week in the grass event. Kvitova won in straight sets but Petkovic did cause her a few problems. They have met 3 times indoors with Kvitova winning all of them in straight sets.

Petkovic had a comfortable win over 1268th ranked Vecic yesterday. She was broken at the start of the second set but then broke her opponent’s serve 3 times to close out the match. She has played her first 2 matches of 2020 in Berlin this week. She does have a decent indoor record but a semi final in Linz in October last year was her only recent strong finish.

Kvitova has not had massive success indoors. Her only strong result in the last 4 seasons was when she took the title in St Petersburg in January 2018. She took the first set from Svitolina yesterday in what was actually the final of the grass event. The final was delayed by rain earlier in the week and was moved to the aircraft hanger indoor court.

This could be similar to their match on grass. Kvitova should be too strong but if her issues on serve continue then Petkovic will have opportunities.

We can try a small lay around 1.15 and remove the liability at 1.30. Back Kvitova if she loses set 1.

ATP

Thiem (1.14) v Haas (6.8)

This will be their first meeting.

Thiem has a strong indoor record. He reached the final of the World Tour Finals last November beating both Djokovic and Federer en route. He lost the final in a third set tie break to Tsitsipas.

Haas had an excellent win over Struff yesterday. He also played well earlier in the week on grass and took Sinner to 3 sets.

I don’t expect Haas to pull off another surprise win. Thiem is a level above Struff although his return game is not at its best. He has been serving extremely well.

At this price it could be worth a lay around 1.10 and look to remove the liability at 1.20. Haas’ best hope is to take the sets to tie breaks.

WTA

Svitolina (1.5) v Sevastova (2.68)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Svitolina leads their previous matches 3-1. They last met earlier this week on grass. I had expected Svitolina to struggle a bit in that one but she took it in 2 close sets. They have never met indoors.

Overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 favour Svitolina. She has a much stronger indoor record.

Excellent win over Kvitova for Svitolina yesterday. It was a messy opening set but once she sorted her serve out she was the better player.

Sevastova took advantage of a poor display from Kiki Bertens yesterday. She beat the Dutch player in straight sets. Sevastova has served well this week. She has played very few indoor matches in the last 2 seasons.

Ideally Svitolina gets broken first. Back her if that happens or if she loses set 1.

 

Today we have the rain delayed WTA final and they start the indoor hard court event.

As always…..EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES

ATP (Indoor Hard)

Sinner (2.06) v Khachanov (1.86)

Due to star at 10:30 am

This will be their first meeting.

Sinner has better overall results in the last 12 months. His best results were in Challenger tournaments. He also has stronger indoor results.

Khachanov has played just 3 matches on clay during the pandemic. Sinner’s only matches were this week on grass.

We have some value on Sinner today as he should be slight favourite. Lay Khachanov around 1.60 to 1.65 and remove liability around 2.20. Back Sinner if he loses set 1.

Update: By the time the match started Sinner was in fact slight market favourite. Both players started well on serve but Sinner won the break of serve in game 4 and that was enough to give him the set. Khachanov had very little pressure on the Sinner serve in that set.
In the second set Khachanov had 3 break points but was unable to take one. The set went into a tie break which Sinner won.
Sinner won 6-3, 7-6.

WTA (Indoor hard)

This is the final of the grass event that was delayed by rain.

Svitolina (3.25) v Kvitova (1.43)

Due to start at 12:00

Kvitova leads their previous matches 7-2. Their most recent meeting was indoors in Singapore in October 2018 and Svitolina won in straight sets. All their other matches were on hard courts. Only 1 of their matches went to a third set.

Overall results are quite even in the last 12 months. Kvitova doesn’t have a great record indoors. She has won 2 of her last 10. Svitolina has had a lot more success on indoor courts. She won the year end finals in 2018 and reached the final again in 2019.

Svitolina played better than expected earlier this week on grass. She will be happier that the final has been moved indoors.

Kvitova has also played well on grass this week beating Petkovic and Bertens in straight sets.

This should be a more even match than it would have been on grass. Lay Kvitova around 1.30 and remove liability around 1.65. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: It was a bit of a scrappy opening set with 5 breaks of serve in the first 6 games. Kvitova took that set after Svitolina took an early lead.
In set 2 Svitolina’s serve improved. She broke the Kvitova serve twice to take the set easily.
In the deciding match tie break Svitolina raced to a 5-2 lead and closed out the tie break 10-5.
Svitolina won 3-6, 6-1, 10-5

ATP (Indoor hard)

Struff (1.14) v Haas (6)

This will be their first meeting.

Struff played well in the grass event earlier this week taking Bautista Agut to the 3rd set match tie break.

Tommy Haas’ last indoor match was in October 2015. Struff hasn’t had a huge amount of success indoors. He has reached a few quarter finals and even a semi final in 2017.

Struff has served well recently and Haas won’t get too many chances to break. Haas played at a higher level than expected in his 3 set loss to Sinner earlier this week. Struff has more experience than Sinner and I expect him to be too consistent for Haas.

Struff’s price of 1.14 is a little insulting to the retired Haas and it is worth laying Struff around 1.10 and removing liability at 1.20 to 1.25.

WTA (Indoor hard)

Vecic (3.55) v Petkovic (1.12)

Due to start at 3:30 pm

At first I thought they had misspelled Vekic. Unfortunately they hadn’t. Vecic is ranked 1268. I think she was there to be a ball girl and someone dropped out. Her last win was in August 2018.

Petkovic reached the semi finals indoors in Linz in October. She played well against Kvitova on grass earlier this week.

It is hard to see this being competitive. You can try a small lay at 1.10 and remove liability around 1.20.

WTA (Indoor hard)

Sevastova (2.74) v Bertens (1.40)

Due to start at 5 pm

Bertens leads their previous matches 2-1. All their matches were on clay in Madrid. Bertens won in 2019 and 2018. Sevastova won in 2017. All matches ended in 2 sets.

They were due to meet yesterday in the 3rd place play off for the grass event but it was cancelled.

Overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020 strongly favour Bertens. She has won 12 of 16 in 2020. Sevastova won 2 of 9.

Bertens has a significantly stronger record indoors. She has won 11 of her 15 indoor matches in the last year. Sevastova won 2 of her 4 matches.

Sevastova has played well on grass this week. Bertens lost against Kvitova. It was her first match during the pandemic. We need Bertens to start slowly. Back her after she gets broken or if she loses set 1.