Daily match picks

These are being played on grass which seems a strange choice when they’re trying to be ready for the tour to get going on hard courts. I’m sure they know what they’re doing.

EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES

ATP

Bautista Agut (1.66) v Struff (2.4)

Due to start at 11 am

Bautista Agut leads their previous matches 3-1. Their most recent meeting was in February this year on a hard court in Dubai. Struff won in 2 very tight sets.Their only grass match was in Halle, Germany in June 2018. All Bautista Agut’s wins were in straight sets.

Overall results favour Bautista Agut in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Struff has a poor record on grass. Bautista Agut has won 35 of his last 50 on this surface. He reached the semi finals at Wimbledon.

Struff served well on clay last week but his return game wasn’t great. Grass isn’t going to improve that situation.

Back Bautista Agut around 1.85 to 1.95.

WTA

Sevastova (2.5) v Goerges (1.5)

Due to start at 1 pm

Goerges leads their previous matches 5-4. Their last match was in August 2018 in Canada. Sevastova won on a hard court in 2 sets. They have met once on grass. That was in Mallorca in June 2017. Sevastova took that one in 3 sets. Only 2 of their matches went to a deciding set.

Their 12 month results slightly favour Goerges. Sevastova has been poor in 2020 winning just 1 from 7.

Both players have not placed since Doha in February.

It could be an untidy match. Goerges reached the final on grass in Birmingham last season. She lost to Serena Williams in the third round at Wimbledon.

Sevastova made the semi finals in Mallorca where Kenin beat her in 3 sets. She lost to Danielle Collins in the second round at Wimbledon.

I favour Goerges for this one but it could be close with a few price swings. Back her around 1.80 or wait for her to be broken before backing her.

ATP

Haas (4.1) v Sinner (1.22)

Due to start around 3 pm

This will be their first meeting which isn’t really a surprise as Tommy Haas has not played for 3 years.

Sinner has not played a match during the pandemic.

Haas’ were around 10 years ago. He reached the semi finals at Wimbledon in 2009 and the fourth round in 2013. He beat Roger Federer to win the title in Halle on grass in 2012. He is likely to be drastically out of shape.

Sinner is a very promising young player. He had a very strong season in 2019 though most of his best results were in Challenger tournaments. He has only played 5 matches on grass as a pro. He won 2 of them.

We could try a small lay on Sinner around 1.15. However if a fat old man walks onto court claiming to be Tommy Haas I wouldn’t bother.

WTA

Kvitova (1.22) v Petkovic (4)

Due to start at 5 pm

Petkovic leads their previous matches 6-5. They last met at the US Open last year. Petkovic won on a hard court in 2 sets. They have only met once on grass which was in Hertogenbosch, Netherlands in 2010 and Petkovic won in straight sets. Their only 3 set match was at the Australian Open in 2018.

Kvitova has stronger results in the last 12 months. She has had an excellent 2020 so far winning 15 of her 20 matches. Petkovic retired from her last match which was in Luxembourg in October.

Kvitova played a hard court exhibition event in May beating Muchova, Siniakova and Krejcikova in straight sets. Two weeks ago she played another exhibition but seemed to be struggling with injury. She lost to Vondrousova 6-4, 6-1.

It is very hard to know what shape Petkovic is in and we are not certain that Kvitova is fit. Happy days!! As Kvitova has performed well already during the lockdown I am thinking that her problem against Vondrousova was nothing serious.

Kvitova’s price at the start certainly isn’t one I will be taking. We could try a small lay around 1.15 and remove liability at 1.30 or we can wait to see if Kvitova loses set 1 before backing her.

 

There should be some good quality matches from tomorrow as we get nearer to the main tours returning in August.

EXHIBITION= REDUCED STAKES!

Schmiedlova (2)v Kuzmova (1.75)

Due to start at 1 pm

Schmiedlova leads their previous matches 2-1. All their meetings were on clay with the most recent one being in April last year in Prague. Schmiedlova won in straight sets. Kuzmova had a very easy win in July 2018 and Schmiedlova’s other win was in June 2017, also in straight sets.

Their overall results are quite even in the last 12 months. Kuzmova has a slightly better win percenatge in 2020 although Schmiedlova has the better ROI.

Both players have strong clay results.

Schmiedlova has won 5 of her 6 clay matches during the pandemic. She was only pre match underdog in 2 of those matches. Both were against Bencic. In the first one in June she won just 1 game. Yesterday she started as massive underdog but this time she beat Bencic in 3 sets.

Kuzmova is unbeaten in her 4 clay matches during lockdown. She wasn’t really tested by sister Katerina this week.

It’s difficult to pick a winner. It should be close and I expect a few breaks of serve. Schmiedlova’s confidence can be fragile but her win over Bencic will have given her a huge boost. Kuzmova hasn’t been under pressure since her 3 sets win over Anna Blinkova almost a month ago.

Lay Kuzmova around 1.65 or wait for her to break the Schmiedlova serve. Actually, laying whoever breaks first is a good option. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Several breaks of serve as expected. Schmiedlova was broken in the very first game of the match. She eventually broke back to make it 3-3. She was immediately broken again and a further break gave the set to Kuzmova.
In set 2 Schmiedlova took an immediate break of serve but once again was broken straight back. She won another break of serve and yet again was broken straight back. Two more Schmiedlova breaks levelled the match at one set all.

Schmiedlova took a 3-0 lead in the deciding set. She served for the match at 5-3 but was broken. She broke Kuzmova again to take the match.

Schmiedlova won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
15 breaks of serve.