Daily match picks

There should be some good quality matches from tomorrow as we get nearer to the main tours returning in August.

EXHIBITION= REDUCED STAKES!

Schmiedlova (2)v Kuzmova (1.75)

Due to start at 1 pm

Schmiedlova leads their previous matches 2-1. All their meetings were on clay with the most recent one being in April last year in Prague. Schmiedlova won in straight sets. Kuzmova had a very easy win in July 2018 and Schmiedlova’s other win was in June 2017, also in straight sets.

Their overall results are quite even in the last 12 months. Kuzmova has a slightly better win percenatge in 2020 although Schmiedlova has the better ROI.

Both players have strong clay results.

Schmiedlova has won 5 of her 6 clay matches during the pandemic. She was only pre match underdog in 2 of those matches. Both were against Bencic. In the first one in June she won just 1 game. Yesterday she started as massive underdog but this time she beat Bencic in 3 sets.

Kuzmova is unbeaten in her 4 clay matches during lockdown. She wasn’t really tested by sister Katerina this week.

It’s difficult to pick a winner. It should be close and I expect a few breaks of serve. Schmiedlova’s confidence can be fragile but her win over Bencic will have given her a huge boost. Kuzmova hasn’t been under pressure since her 3 sets win over Anna Blinkova almost a month ago.

Lay Kuzmova around 1.65 or wait for her to break the Schmiedlova serve. Actually, laying whoever breaks first is a good option. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Several breaks of serve as expected. Schmiedlova was broken in the very first game of the match. She eventually broke back to make it 3-3. She was immediately broken again and a further break gave the set to Kuzmova.
In set 2 Schmiedlova took an immediate break of serve but once again was broken straight back. She won another break of serve and yet again was broken straight back. Two more Schmiedlova breaks levelled the match at one set all.

Schmiedlova took a 3-0 lead in the deciding set. She served for the match at 5-3 but was broken. She broke Kuzmova again to take the match.

Schmiedlova won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
15 breaks of serve.

 

They are done with the round robin matches. The 4 top players are in action today.

EXHIBITION = REDUCED STAKES!

I think that the third set will be a normal set rather than just a tie break.

Thiem (1.35) v Bautista Agut (3.7)

Due to start at 12:30

Bautista Agut leads their previous meetings 3-1. All 3 of his wins were in 2015 on hard and indoor hard courts. Thiem won their most recent match in September 2018. It was on an indoor court in the St Petersburg semi final. He won in straight sets.

Overall results favour Thiem in the last 12 months and also in 2020. His clay results are also much stronger. He has won 19 of 21 clay matches in 2020.

Thiem has not lost a set so far although all his sets have been tight. He has been broken just twice in 3 matches. He has only broken his opponent 6 times with 3 of those coming against Rublev.

Bautista Agut has only been broken in one of his matches. In the 2 matches that he won he faced just 1 break point. He was broken 3 times by Berrettini who played a very strong match.

I have to give Thiem the edge on clay although his return game has not been as sharp as normal. We can expect close sets so Thiem’s price is not value. Bautista Agut stepped up his game in the last match and he should compete today. Lay Thiem around 1.20 to 1.25 and remove the liability around 1.45 to 1.50. Back Thiem if he goes a break behind or loses set 1.

Update: Thiem took an early 4-1 double break lead but Bautista Agut fought back to take the set in a tie break. Thiem eventually got the break in the second set and was also the stronger player in the deciding set.
Thiem won 6-7, 6-2, 6-2.

Berrettini (1.90) v Rublev (2.02)

Due to start at 2 pm

Berrettini leads their previous meetings 3-1. Three of their matches were in 2019. Berrettini won indoors in Vienna in October 7-5, 7-6. In August he won in straight sets at the US Open on a hard court 6-1, 6-4, 7-6. Rublev’s win was in February 2019 indoors and he won 6-3, 7-6. Their only clay match was in Gstaad in July 2018. Berrettini won 6-3, 6-3.

Overall results are much stronger for Rublev in the last 12 months and also in 2020. Both are strong on clay. Berrettini has the better long term record on this surface as Rublev has improved his clay game in the last 12 to 18 months.

Berrettini was strong in his first 2 matches of the week and won both in straight sets. Yesterday his intensity was a little lower. He created plenty of chances against Khachanov but didn’t take them. He broke just once from 8 break chances. Perhaps he was not giving 100% as he knew he had done enough to get through to this stage of the tournament.

Rublev’s serve has come under pressure this week and he looks a little more vulnerable than today’s opponent.

The sets are going to be close. It isn’t surprising that players’ serves are the better part of their game after a long lay off. Their timing on the return of serve and ground strokes in general will take a bit longer to get back.

I am giving Berrettini a slight edge for this one. Lay Rublev around 1.70 and remove liability around 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.