Daily match picks

Leylah Fernandez 1.87, Heather Watson 2.08

Due to start at midnight.

Watson has won both their previous matches. Their most recent match was in August last year. It was in the semi finals of the Vancouver ITF hard court tournament. She won in straight sets. Their other match was indoors in 2018. She won that one in 2 sets.

Overall results favour Fernandez in the last 12 months. Hard court results also favour her in the same period.

Watson won her last 2 matches this week as underdog. In the quarter final she beat Christina McHale in 3 sets and then defeated in form Xiyu Wang in 2 close sets in the semi final.

Fernandez has come through the qualifying rounds and 4 main draw matches without losing a set. She was underdog in the second round and quarter final. Nao Hibino was easily beat in round 2 for the loss of just 3 games. The quarter final was closer but Anastasia Potapova only managed to break the Fernandez serve twice. In the semi final Renata Zarazua disrupted Fernandez’ game but still couldn’t take a set.

Stats for the tournament all favour Fernandez. This should go to 3 sets. Some value on Watson. Lay Watson around 1.65 to 1.70 and remove some or all liability at 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

 

Ashleigh Barty 1.62, Garbine Muguruza 2.56

Quarter Final: Due to start at 7 pm

Barty leads their previous matches 2-1. Their last match was in the Hopman Cup exhibition in December 2018. Barty won on an indoor hard court in 2 sets. Their other matches were both in 2017 with Muguruza winning on a hard court in 3 sets in August and Barty winning on grass in 3 sets in June.

Barty has stronger overall results in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are also better in the same period. She won 79% of her matches compared to 69% for Muguruza. Both players have won over 80% of hard court matches in 2020.

Barty won the title in Adelaide in January and reached the semi finals at the Australian Open where she lost 7-6, 7-5 to eventual champion Sofia Kenin. This week she had a comfortable win over Laura Siegemund in the first round. She was due to meet Elena Rybakina in the second round but Rybakina finally ran out of steam after a superb start to the season. She withdrew before the match.

Muguruza has also made a great start to 2020. She reached the semi final in Shenzhen and the quarter finals in Hobart in January. She reached the Australian Open Final where she lost in 3 sets to Sofia Kenin. In February she made the quarter finals in Dubai last week.

We have some value on Muguruza and we may get 3 sets. Back Barty around 1.95 to 2.10.