Daily match picks

Amanda Anisimova 2.46, Ekaterina Alexandrova 1.59

First round. Due to start around 3:30 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Alexandrova has stronger overall results in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are also better in the same period.

Anisimova made a decent start to the season. She reached the semi finals in Auckland in the first week of January. Since then she has played 2 matches and lost both in 3 sets as favourite. At the Australian Open she lost to Zarina Diyas and Barbora Strycova beat her last week in Dubai. She won the opening set in both those matches.

Alexandrova ended 2019 strongly with the title in Limoges in December. She won the title in Shenzhen in her first tournament of 2020 and then made the third round in Melbourne. She reached the semi finals indoors in St Petersburg 2 weeks ago. She did not play last week so should be well rested. She has won 12 of 14 matches in 2020.

Anisimova should be competitive but I have to favour Alexandrova. Back Alexandrova around 1.90.

Update: A little disappointing from Alexandrova. She lost the opening set with a single break of serve. In set 2 she was broken at 3-3 but immediately broke back. When Anisimova served at 5-6 Alexandrova had 2 set points but couldn’t take them. Anisimova took the set and match in a tie break.
Anisimova won 6-3, 7-6.

 

Egor Gerasimov 2.58, Felix Auger-Alliassime 1.62

Quarter Final. Due to start at 7:30 pm

Aliassime won their only previous match. That was in October 2018 in the semi finals of the Tashkent Challenger. He won on a hard court in 2 very close sets.

Overall results are quite even in the last 12 months. They have both won around 63% of their matches. Both men are strong indoors but Gerasimov has a slight lead.

Aliassime has started to find better form in 2020. He didn’t end last season particularly well. He has needed 3 sets in both his matches this week. In the last round he beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert in a third set tie break.

Gerasimov has come through the qualifying rounds and beat David Goffin and Dennis Novak in the main draw. Novak was not able to break the Gerasimov serve and Goffin managed just 2 breaks of serve.

Stats for the tournament are very close. Return stats are fractionally better for Gerasimov. Aliassime leads the service hold stats with 97% v 91% service games held. This going to be a very tight quarter final.

Some value on Gerasimov and I expect him to take at least a set. We have a very good chance of this going to 3 sets. Lay Aliassime around 1.40 and remove some or all the liability at 1.80. Lay the set 1 winner.