Daily match picks

Elena Rybakina 2.46, Kiki Bertens 1.65

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Bertens won their only previous meeting. That was in June 2019 on grass in the semi final of Hertogenbosch, Netherlands. She won in 2 close sets.

Rybakina has slightly better overall results in the last 12 months. Her indoor results are also stronger in the same period. Her longer term indoor results are also better.

Defending champion Bertens has had tough matches in the last 2 rounds. Ekaterina Alexandrova took her to 3 sets yesterday and Anastasia Potapova kept both their sets very close.

Rybakina has lost the first set in her last 2 matches. Oceane Dodin played extremely well in their quarter final and took the first set in a tiebreak. She then took a 3-1 lead in the second set before Rybakina started her fight back. In the semi final Maria Sakkari broke Rybakina’s serve 3 times in their opening set. Rybakina broke at the start of set 2 and although she wasn’t able to hold on to that break she managed to find another break near the end of the set. Sakkari was broken 4 times in the deciding set.

Both players have held 80% of their service games this week. The other stats all favour Bertens who has faced tougher opponents. Back Bertens around 1.90 to 2.00. Decent chance of 3 sets.

 

Miomir Kecmanovic 2.14, Kyle Edmund 1.86

Due to start around 9pm

This will be their first meeting.

Slightly better overall results for Kecmanovic in the last 12 months. His ROI is also higher. Edmund has better indoor results in the same period.

Kecmanovic has won 2 of his 3 matches as underdog. American Tommy Paul was beaten in straight sets in the first round. Paolo Lorenzi didn’t put up too much of a fight in the next round. Kecmanovic’s toughest test came in the quarter final against Ugo Humbert. He had to come back from losing the opening set and the deciding set was tight.

Edmund has been pre match favourite in every round. He was only broken once in each of his first 2 matches but in the quarter final was up against Soon Woo Kwon. I had expected Kwon to give him a few problems and that proved to be the case. He beat Kwon in a third set tie break.

Stats for the tournament all favour Kecmanovic. The value is on him. Lay Edmund around 1.60 and remove all or some of your liability at 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner. I think Kecmanovic takes this.