Daily match picks

Pierre-Hugues Herbert 2.8, David Goffin 1.55

Due to start around 8 pm

Goffin has won all 4 of their previous matches. The last time they played was last month at the Australian Open. Goffin won in 5 sets on a hard court. He won their only indoor match in 2017. That was in the Rotterdam semi final and he won in straight sets.

Herbert has not been in the best of form in the last few months. He was playing better tennis in the first half of 2019 and he is defending the ranking points from reaching the final last season. That seems to have inspired him this week. He played a solid match in the first round to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky in straight sets. He only faced a single break point which Stakhovsky converted. In the second round he faced Felix Auger Aliassime who is ranked 21st in the world. Herbert was the pre match underdog but came through in 2 very tight sets. He again faced just 1 break point but was not broken.

Goffin has started the 2020 season in decent form. He beat Rafa Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov at the ATP Cup. He then reached the third round in Melbourne where he lost to Andrey Rublev in 4 tight sets. This week he had a potentially tricky first match against Alexander Bublik. He came through it in straight sets losing his serve just once.

Both players have strong long term indoor records. I have to go with Goffin but as usual I don’t like the pre match prices. Back Goffin around 1.85 to 1.95.

 

Pablo Andujar 2.12, Albert Ramos 1.87

Due to start around 8 pm

Andujar leads their previous matches 8-3. They last played was in the Gstaad semi final in July 2019. Ramos won on clay in straight sets.

Overall results are quite even. Andujar has the better clay results in the last 12 months. Longer term clay results are even. They have both won 31 of their last 50 (62%).

Andujar won 78% of his clay matches in the last year. He played a mix of ATP and Challenger tournaments. Last year he lost in the first round to Italian Lorenzo Sonego. This week he beat Filip Horansky in straight sets.

Ramos has made a decent start to the season on hard courts. He reached the quarter finals in Adelaide. Last year he won 68% of his clay matches. He also played a mix of ATP and Challenger tournaments. Last year he made the second round by beating Lucky Loser Hugo Dellien in 3 sets. Thus week he was up against qualifier Facundo Bagnis in 2 very close sets.

We have some value on Andujar. There is a decent chance that this goes to 3 sets. Ramos played well in the last round but his first serve will need to find the court more often today. Lay Ramos around 1.50 and remove the liability at 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner. I favour Andujar to win.